While the Hokies have been enjoying another successful season on the gridiron, another Virginia Tech team has been quietly preparing for a season that could be even better than that of their football counterparts. The men's basketball team returns a lot of talented and experienced players from last season's team and will be looking to make a run to the Big Dance in March of 2007.
The Hokies went through a lot last year, including fractured fifth metatarsals (just like every other year except this one so far, knock on wood), a senior who almost succumbed to cancer (Allen Calloway), Coleman Collins' father passing away from cancer during the middle of the season, an unlucky night in Cameron Indoor Stadium, and numerous other things on and off the court that I don't care to remember, and you probably don't care to read.
There is a saying that goes something like “What doesn't kill you, makes you stronger.” That's true for the most part, and last season's experiences should help mold Virginia Tech into a mentally tougher team for the 2006-07 season.
But being mentally tough is only part of the solution. The Hokies will have to improve in several key elements of the game if they hope to qualify for the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1996.
Perhaps the most important, and the most painful to watch if you're a Virginia Tech fan, is free throw shooting. The Hokies shot just 64.5% from the charity stripe last season, which was next-to-last in the ACC.
In fact, shooting in general must improve. Tech's overall field goal percentage last year was 45.4%, seventh in the ACC. Their 3-point percentage was 32.2%, which tied for dead last in the conference with Clemson. The Hokies have done a lot of things well over the past couple of years, but shooting the basketball has not been one of them.
One other important aspect is rebounding. The Hokies were last in the ACC in rebounding margin last year (-3 per game), 10th in offensive rebounds (10.97) and last in defensive rebounds (20.7).
Shooting and rebounding are perhaps the two most important aspects of basketball, so how did the Hokies come so close to winning so many games last year? They forced turnovers and took care of the basketball.
The Hokies were first in the ACC in turnover margin at +5.13 per game. That number is far ahead of the #2 team, Clemson, who checked in at +3.44. The Hokies averaged just 11.2 turnovers a game, tops in the ACC, while they finished third in steals (9.1 per game) and their opponents averaged 16.4 turnovers per game.
Those five extra possessions per game helped the Hokies win a few squeakers, and stay competitive in some extremely close losses. If they can have similar numbers in the turnover game this year and improve their free throw shooting, 3-point shooting, and rebounding, then they have a good chance to go dancing in March.
But on the other hand, one of the most important factors in college sports is experience, and the Hokies have no shortage of that. Tech's roster is stocked full of former full-time starters and part-time starters.
Career Starts | |
Name | Starts |
Zabian Dowdell | 85 |
Jamon Gordon | 80 |
Coleman Collins | 62 |
Deron Washington | 58 |
Markus Sailes | 45 |
A.D. Vassallo | 10 |
Robert Krabbendam | 6 |
Cheick Diakite | 5 |
Total | 351 |
That experience could play dividends for the Hokies this year. The Hokies will
have three full-time fourth year starters and a full-time third year starter.
Markus Sailes was a full-time starter two seasons ago in 2004-05, but he'll
likely come off the bench this year. That shows the type of depth that this team
will feature in 2006-07.
The Backcourt
Zabian Dowdell and Jamon Gordon have been the backbone of the Virginia Tech basketball team for quite sometime. They established themselves as full-time starters from the very day they set foot in Blacksburg. Both are combo guards who are capable of playing either position in the backcourt.
Jamon Gordon is the jack-of-all-trades in the ACC. He can score, pass, rebound and steal. He averaged 11.4 points and six rebounds per game last season. He was third on the team in scoring, second in rebounding average, first in assists, third in blocks and second in steals. He is one of the nation's top defensive players. He runs the court very well and is a much better athlete than he looks.
At 6-3, Gordon plays much bigger than his actual size. Averaging six rebounds per game is good for some forwards, not to mention a guard. Against Wake Forest last season, Gordon scored 21 points and grabbed an amazing 14 rebounds. Later in the year against Clemson, he outdid himself, scoring 21 points with 16 rebounds. He also had four steals and four assists against the Tigers.
Not many guards can put up numbers like that. Gordon is the heart and soul of Virginia Tech's team. If he stays healthy all year, the Hokies have a chance to make a run to the NCAA tournament.
Zabian Dowdell is Virginia Tech's go-to scorer. The left-handed “Hokie from Pahokee” averaged 15.3 points per game last season, which led the team. He also led the team with 70 steals and dished out 103 assists. Like Gordon, Dowdell is a very good defender and can play point guard or off the ball.
It will be important for Dowdell to be a better shooter from the outside this year. As a freshman in 2004-05, he shot 37.5% from the outside. As a sophomore, he was a blistering 44.9% from three-point range. But those numbers dropped to 35.8% last season, including just 32.9% in ACC play.
The Hokies are lucky to have an experienced guard like Markus Sailes coming off the bench. Sailes isn't a big scorer or a good shooter, but he is a great ball handler and he can defend all three perimeter positions. He started 16 games for Tech last season, and all 29 in 2004-05. Last year he dished out 51 assists while turning the ball over just 27 times.
The other backup guard will be true freshman Nigel Munson. Munson was a 4-star recruit and top 100 player from DeMatha High School in Maryland. He is a true floor general who makes players around him better. In high school, he shot over 40% from three-point range and over 90% from the free throw line. It will help Munson to play behind three experienced guards this year before he takes over the starting duties in 2007-08.
Small Forward
Small forward is Tech's deepest position on the court, in terms of talented players and the number of players on the team who can play the position. As it stands now, Virginia Tech has two very good options in junior Deron Washington and sophomore A.D. Vassallo.
Washington (10.5 ppg) is a two-year starter who has spent most of his time at power forward. But as the season went along last season, he began to flash the ability to hit the open jump shot. In his only extensive action at small forward last year, Washington scored 21 points and grabbed six rebounds against Georgia Tech. He was also 2-of-3 from three-point range.
Washington has spent the preseason at small forward and improved his outside jumper even more in the offseason. He is no longer a player who can be left alone outside the three-point line. In the Maroon-White scrimmage in October, Washington drained five outside jumpers on his way to a big day.
For two years Deron Washington has played power forward in the ACC at less than 200 pounds, and he will benefit from this move to small forward. He has already built a reputation as one of the ACC's top dunkers. Now as a junior he'll try to make the jump to being a complete player.
A.D. Vassallo should also see a lot of action at small forward. Vassallo didn't play much in the early parts of last season, but he exploded onto the scene with a 29-point performance at Wake Forest. He averaged 6.9 points per game last year, but he has the offensive potential to do much more.
As he became a regular in the lineup later in the season, Vassallo started shooting better. He shot 40% from three-point range in ACC games, and he is capable of upping that mark as a sophomore. At 6-6, 216, he could also see minutes at power forward, where he would be a matchup problem for the opposing defense.
One thing Vassallo needs to improve is his foot speed on defense, so it will be interesting to see what kind of progress he made in that area in the sophomore. Vassallo's weight is listed at 216 this year, versus 213 last year, but he appears to be more fit and in better playing shape.
Jamon Gordon, Markus Sailes and Chris Tucker could also play the small forward position, if needed. Markus Sailes started all 29 games at the position in 2004-05.
The Frontcourt
The main question about this year's team is the frontcourt. Coleman Collins is a proven player, but who will step up and help him out? And will the Hokies have the depth to compete on the inside with the ACC's top teams?
When healthy and focused, Coleman Collins (6-9, 243) has proven to be hard to handle. He has two dominating performances against Duke's Shelden Williams to his credit. In Tech's 67-65 upset of Duke in 2004-05, Collins scored 14 points and pulled down 18 rebounds against the ACC's top center. In the near-upset in Cameron Indoor Stadium last year, he scored 25 points to go along with eight rebounds.
Collins averaged 14.5 points and 6.8 rebounds last season, but in ACC play, that number dipped to 12.9 points and 5.8 rebounds. Collins' head understandably wasn't in every game. His father was suffering through the final stages of lung cancer and passed away during the middle of the season. Collins was never the same player after that, and we probably saw the real Coleman Collins just once last year, at Duke.
But Collins has talent, there is no question about it. NBADraft.net projects Collins to be selected early in the second round of the 2007 NBA Draft, going to the Minnesota Timberwolves with the 36th overall pick. But Collins' season will depend on his mental state, not his physical gifts. Will he be ready to play game in and game out? We shall see. As a side note, Collins finally turned 20 last July.
Helping Collins on the inside this year will be Dutch inside man Robert Krabbendam (7-0, 234). Krabbendam is a r-sophomore who redshirted last year due to an injury. He played in 2004-05, starting six games when Collins was injured. Krabbendam is obviously big, but what else can he do?
Despite his size, he is skilled with the basketball in the typical Euro style. He can hit the open jumper and he has good range. The main question is how he can help rebounding the basketball, and how good is he defensively. If he can answer those questions in a positive way, then the Hokies should be fine on the inside.
Freshman forward Lewis Witcher (6-9, 218) should be able to provide some depth on the inside. Like Collins, Witcher is a skilled inside player. In fact, he may be a little further along than Collins was as a freshman. Joining Witcher coming off the bench will be 6-9, 217 sophomore Cheick Diakite. Diakite got some experience as a freshman last season, and proved to be very raw. But he is a physical presence on the inside and he plays extremely hard. He'll find a way to help the team again this year, and in the preseason scrimmage on October 21st, he looked smoother and more comfortable than he did last season.
Senior walkon Chris Tucker (6-7, 240) will also be able to help in spot situations. Tucker was a big part of Tech's win at Wake Forest last year. He can handle the ball well, is a good passer, and can shoot the ball surprisingly well. His playing time will depend on matchups.
Keys to Reaching the NCAA Tournament
I believe there are a few important steps that the Hokies need to take to make the Big Dance this year. In no particular order:
1) Rebound better. The Hokies already create extra possessions with their outstanding turnover margin. But their poor rebounding margin offsets that advantage. This year Tech's lineup will be bigger, with two true inside players in Collins and Krabbendam, and a bigger small forward in Washington. Rebounding should be better.
2) Improve from the outside. Preferably, that would be Zabian Dowdell. With Deron Washington reportedly improving from the outside, and A.D. Vassallo flashing outstanding potential from downtown last season, Dowdell needs to get back to his earlier form. I'm looking (hoping is probably the better word) for Dowdell's three-point percentage to be around 40%, give or take a percentage point or two.
3) A consistent Coleman Collins. Collins has never really been a consistent player for the Hokies, but it's never really been his fault either. He's battled through two football problems (a broken foot as a freshman and a cyst as a sophomore), a bad back, and other injuries. Not to mention going through the death process (not just death…the long, slow-moving process is the tough part) of a parent in the sight of a national audience. His teammate and roommate, Allen Calloway, suffered through cancer. If Collins can stay healthy and have no off court distractions, he can stay focused. And a focused Coleman Collins is a dangerous Coleman Collins.
Unfortunately, reports have indicated that Collins has suffered through a high ankle sprain in the preseason. There are no further details. It is unknown if the injury is serious, or if it could effect his play.
Final Thoughts
I want to believe. Part of me does believe. But I've been an avid follower of the Tech basketball program for about a decade now, and I've just not seen very many good things happen to the Hokies in that time. I've seen fractured fifth metatarsals, a lot of them. I've seen two halfcourt heaves to beat the Hokies. Remember the lucky one by Duke last year? Not nearly as lucky as ODU's a few years back.
I've seen bad recruiting. I've seen bad coaching. Bad rolls, bad bounces. And a lot of close losses, especially last season. Point being, I've seen a lot of things while following the Tech basketball program, and not a lot of it has been good.
Even when the Hokies have been good, or been close to being good, something almost always happens, whether it be an injury or injuries, the death of a parent, a senior with cancer, a player's home getting destroyed by a hurricane, or whatever. Tech has had a lot of luck throughout the years, but most of it has been the bad kind (the first ACC year notwithstanding).
But at the same time, I'm tired of being a pessimist. I think this team has the talent to make the NCAA tournament. They certainly have the experience, and the want-to. And one thing's for sure, they are due a heckuva lot of good luck, or at least just a season with no bad luck. Whatever happens, I'm ready for some Hokie Hoops, and it all starts on Friday night with Coppin State.