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Virginia Tech (10-4, 1-0 ACC) at #5 Duke (13-1, 0-0)

Saturday, January 6, 2006, noon

TV: ESPN

Special Preview Items:

Virginia Tech returns to Cameron Indoor Stadium this Saturday, the site of their most heartbreaking loss in recent memory. The Hokies led Duke 75-74 with 1.6 seconds remaining on December 4, 2005, but a prayer from near half court by Sean Dockery gave the then-#1 Blue Devils a 77-75 victory. Duke is ranked #5 now, and they aren't nearly as experienced, but they are still Duke. The Hokies are going to have to play very well to have a chance at the upset victory.

Duke is 13-1 on the season, and that's a very impressive 13-1. The Blue Devils have victories over seven top 100 teams, according to RealTimeRPI.com. They have defeated #14 Air Force, #31 Davidson, #26 Indiana, #40 Georgetown, #96 Holy Cross, #29 Gonzaga and #93 Temple.

Duke's lone loss came to 12-2 Marquette 73-62. Against the sixth toughest schedule in the country to this point, the Blue Devils are 13-1. That's impressive. It's even more impressive when you consider how much youth they have on their team. Take a look at their starting lineup.

Duke Starting Lineup
Pos Name Ht Wt Year Points Rebs
G Greg Paulus 6-1 180 So. 8.1 1.9
G DeMarcus Nelson 6-4 200 Jr. 14.5 5.6
G Jon Scheyer 6-5 180 Fr. 10.6 3.1
F David McClure 6-6 200 So. 4.9 5.1
F Josh McRoberts 6-10 240 So. 12.6 7.9


Junior guard DeMarcus Nelson is the elder statesman of the group, and he is the only player on the roster that is not a freshman or sophomore. That qualifies Duke as being one of the youngest teams in the country, and it shows that Coach K truly is one of the greatest of all time. Not many coaches could lead a group this young to a 13-1 start against a very tough schedule.

Not only are they young, but the Blue Devils are small as well. They feature just two true inside players on their roster. Starting power forward Josh McRoberts, at 6-10, 240, is the biggest name on the team, while 7-1, 250 freshman center Brian Zoubek plays 10 minutes per game. Duke has also used 6-8, 215 forward Lance Thomas in the starting lineup for 10 games, but he has missed the last two games with an ankle injury.

McRoberts entered the season with a lot of hype, and he truly is one of the best all around players in the ACC. He is second on his team in scoring and first in rebounds. He also has 59 assists, tops on his team, and an amazing number for a power forward. To compare, he would rank second in assists on Virginia Tech's guard-heavy team behind Jamon Gordon, who has 60.

McRoberts is also a very good defensive player. He has used his superior athleticism to block 37 shots. He hasn't been as big a scorer as many thought he would be, but he could enjoy a huge game against Virginia Tech. The Hokies are somewhat soft on the inside, where they lack a real physical presence. Tech also hasn't shown much scoring punch from their inside players, so McRoberts could be on his way to a huge game offensively and defensively.

DeMarcus Nelson has stepped up his game with the loss of J.J. Redick and Dockery from the backcourt. Nelson averages a team-high 14.5 points per game. He is shooting 50.7% from the field, and 41.8% from three-point range. He is joined in the backcourt by point guard Greg Paulus, who started slowly but has played well lately. Paulus is hitting 51.3% of his outside shots.

Duke's top freshman is 6-5 guard Jon Scheyer. Scheyer is capable of lighting it up from three-point range if he is left unguarded and should develop into one of the ACC's top outside shooters before his career is over.

Duke's defensive numbers are phenomenal, no matter how you slice it. The Blue Devils are allowing just 53.4 points per game, and opponents are shooting just 37.5% from the field. Opposing teams are even worse from the outside, shooting just 24% from three-point range.

Despite their lack of size, Duke enjoys a +6.9 rebounding margin advantage over their opponents. That is partly due to the number of missed shots by their opponents.

As good as they are defensively, Duke doesn't have the firepower on offense since losing J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams. The Blue Devils are averaging just 68.9 points per game, which ranks dead last in the ACC. They shoot just 46.6% from the field, which is 10th in the ACC.

But Duke can stroke the three-pointers. The Blue Devils are hitting 40.5% of their three-pointers as a team, which ranks second in the ACC.

The Hokies definitely have the advantage in turnover margin. Tech currently leads the ACC with a turnover margin of +6.64, while Duke is next-to-last at -0.57. The Hokies have more athleticism in the backcourt and at wing than the Blue Devils, and they'll have to use that to their advantage and win the turnover battle if they want to have a chance to win the game.

The game features the ACC's two worst teams in scoring offense (The Hokies average 73.6 points, while Duke averages 68.9) and the two best teams in scoring defense (Duke allows 53.4 points, and VT allows 57.8). This has the makings of a low-scoring, ugly basketball game.

Bourbonstreet's View

Our hoopster Hokies visit a place that left a very bad taste in our collective mouths last December, traveling to play the #5 ranked Duke Blue-Devils in front of the Cameron Crazies. This game is the first one for the Hokies vs. one of the two crown jewels of ACC hoops. In the past, Seth Greenberg-coached teams have upped their ante vs. big names or when given big-time exposure. Noon Saturday affords us an appetizing mix of both. (ESPN will televise the game, "... and Duke is Duke, they are on TV more than Leave it to Beaver reruns." -Pete Gillen-)

But who will win? Duke is sitting on top of a pretty good looking 13-1 overall record, which includes going 2-1 vs. ranked teams this year. Duke has only allowed more than 56 points one time this year while playing and winning on their own home court. The one team to beat Duke this year (Marquette), followed the precise game plan that Coach Greenberg is very likely to employ vs. the Blue Devils. Marquette got more FTA's on dribble penetration by their two guards and owned a +10 turnover margin vs. the Blue Devils, who only field one upperclassman in their Top-12 playing rotation this year.

That typed, Duke is phenomenal on defense as their national rankings clearly illustrate: checking in at 4th in scoring defense, 1st in 3-point field-goal percentage allowed, and 13th in defensive field goal percentage allowed. Our Hokies check in at 24th in scoring defense; so this one has all the makings of a fifty-something to fifty-something kinda ACC hoops game. Our Hokies have a 149 spot edge in turnovers, and a 49 spot edge in steals. That reads suspiciously like what Marquette did to Duke in terms of winning the turnover margin battle back in November. I like that, and I like the fact that Coleman Collins typically wakes up just in time to play big vs. big-name teams.

Virginia Tech 59, Duke 57