Virginia Tech has had a week off to brood over their recent losses to NC State and Boston College. This Saturday they'll return home to face their rivals from Charlottesville in the most important game of the Virginia-Virginia Tech basketball series in recent memory. Coming off two losses, and with a road trip to Chapel Hill coming up, this game is as close to a "must-win" game that you'll see in early February.

Virginia enters Saturday's contest as the hottest team in the ACC, winners of seven conference games in a row. Once known as a team that generally played poorly on the road, the Cavaliers have won three straight ACC road games. Five of the seven victories have come against teams in the bottom half of the ACC (two over Maryland, one against NC State and one against Miami). The two wins against teams not in the bottom half were against Clemson and Duke, two 5-5 teams. Virginia Tech on the road will likely be their toughest competition over this eight game stretch. Nevertheless, they are a team brimming with confidence and are likely thinking they have a shot to win the ACC.

Sitting at 16-6 overall and 8-2 in ACC play, UVA is in good shape for the NCAA tournament. When you see that they have just three games remaining against teams in the top half of the ACC, and two of those are at home, then they are a virtual lock for the NCAA tournament this year.

UVA Starting Lineup
Pos	Player	Ht	Wt	Year	Pts	Rebs
G	Sean Singletary	6-0	185	Jr.	18.6	4.4
G	J.R. Reynolds	6-2.5	188	Sr.	18.7	3.9
G/F	Mamadi Diane	6-5	197	So.	11.2	3.7
F	Laurynas Mikalauskas	6-8	255	So.	3.7	1.9
C	Jason Cain	6-10	225	Sr.	7	7

Like Virginia Tech, UVA's strength is their backcourt. Sean Singletary and J.R. Reynolds make up one of the most feared and respected backcourts in the nation. They are the most prolific scoring guard combo in the ACC. Mamadi Diane, who plays on the wing for the Cavaliers, also scores in double figures.

Singletary runs the point for UVA, and he is likely a future NBA player. He lacks height, but he is explosive. He gets to the basket very quickly and has a knack for drawing fouls. He is an 89.1% shooter from the free throw line. 33.9% of his points have come from the free throw line this season.

Singletary shoots a lot for UVA. His main weakness is shot selection. Sometimes he plays a little too fast and takes bad shots. He shoots 41.1% from the field and 40.1% from the three-point line this year. As a small player, he's better with a little bit of space. He doesn't need a lot, and he's very capable of creating that space himself. Maryland enjoyed some success defensively against Singletary by using tall, rangy guards to defend him. Markus Sailes could possibly draw this assignment when he is in the game.

Singletary's backcourt mate, J.R. Reynolds, has absolutely exploded since conference play began. He is averaging 25.3 points per game during UVA's seven game winning streak. He is a very confident player who doesn't appear to have a weakness in his offensive game. Reynolds can drive to the basket and score in traffic, knock down the open jumper, and drain deep three-pointers with a hand in his face.

There is an ongoing argument between Tech and UVA fans about whose set of guards are better. The two duos went head to head on three occasions last year. Here are the results of those matchups:

Last Year's Meetings, Backcourt Comparisons
Date	Backcourt Combo	Pts	Rebs	Assists	TOs	Steals
Jan. 15, 2006	Singletary/Reynolds	32	7	9	10	2
Jan. 15, 2006	Dowdell/Gordon	25	9	6	2	7
Feb. 12, 2006	Singletary/Reynolds	42	9	12	5	2
Feb. 12, 2006	Dowdell/Gordon	34	14	7	5	3
Mar. 9, 2006	Singletary/Reynolds	31	10	4	7	2
Mar. 9, 2006	Dowdell/Gordon	19	7	7	1	4

Singletary and Reynolds are the most prolific scorers, but Dowdell and Gordon out-rebounded the UVA backcourt in two of the three games and dominated the turnover margin. Simply put, both guard sets are very good. They won't cancel each other out in points -- UVA's duo will likely score more -- but when you throw in turnover margin and steals, these four players could end up playing each other even.

The game could easily come down to the X-factors. Last year, UVA had players step up in all three of their wins over Tech. Adrian Joseph scored in double figures in all three games against the Hokies. In the matchup in the ACC tournament, forward Laurynas Mikalauskas scored 11 points and grabbed 12 rebounds. Mikalauskas made up for an off night by Singletary, who finished with just eight points on 2-of-10 shooting, including just 1-of-6 from three-point range.

Three guys from each team could end up being key in this game. Amongst the starters, the Deron Washington/Mamadi Diane matchup could be huge, as will Coleman Collins vs. Jason Cain. UVA has developed into a very good offensive rebounding team, and with such firepower at guard, Virginia Tech has to limit them to one shot on their offensive possessions. That means Coleman Collins has to bring is A-game from a rebounding standpoint. If Collins is outplayed by Cain or Mikalauskas, it's not a good sign for Tech.

Both teams have a player coming off the bench that could decide the game. Adrian Joseph doesn't start for UVA anymore, but he averages 7.4 points per game off the bench, making him the top reserve on the team. He played well against the Hokies last year, and they can't let him become a factor this year. A.D. Vassallo will come off the bench for the Hokies. His 11 points per game average is third on the team.

There is one reason, and one reason alone that Virginia beat Virginia Tech three times last season. That reason is three-point shooting. In games that were decided by five points, four points and four points, one three-pointer could potentially make all the difference in the world.

Three-Point Shooting in 2005-06 VT-UVA Games
Date	Virginia			Virginia Tech
Date	Made	Att.	%	Made	Att.	%
Jan. 15	9	20	45.0%	3	21	14.3%
Feb. 12	8	24	33.3%	6	26	23.1%
Mar. 9	5	12	41.7%	2	11	18.2%
Totals	22	56	39.3%	11	58	18.9%

Both teams shot roughly the same number of three-pointers last season, with Virginia hitting double the amount. Virginia Tech doesn't take a lot of three-pointers, and for them to take as many as they took against UVA last year shows that they were getting good looks at the basket, but they just didn't knock them down. Tech shot 32.2% from three-point range a year ago, so they were nearly 14% off their normal clip when they played UVA. The Hokies are due to shoot the ball well against the Hoos.

These teams are very evenly matched. They have beaten teams ranked above them, and they have lost to teams they had no business losing to. The stats confirm that. You don't see many games featuring teams this evenly matched statistically.

Virginia vs. Virginia Tech (ACC Games Only
Category	Virginia		Virginia Tech
Category	Stat	ACC Rank	Stat	ACC Rank
FG %	44%	10	46.70%	7
FG % Defense	39.70%	1	44.40%	4
3-Pt. %	35.80%	3	37.50%	2
3-Pt. % Defense	32%	2	32%	2
FT %	73.80%	3	70.70%	7
Rebounding Margin	+4.7	3	-4.3	9
Turnover Margin	-3.1	11	+2.44	2
Assist/TO Ratio	0.88	9	1.14	1
Scoring Offense	75.3	3	72.1	7
Scoring Defense	70.8	4	73.4	6
Average		4.9		4.7

That's a very even game. One thing to take a closer look at is three-point shooting. The percentages are very close, but UVA makes three-pointers far more often than the Hokies. The Hoos hit an average of 8.3 three-pointers per game, tops in the ACC and far ahead of second place FSU (6.8 per game). Virginia Tech hits an average of four three-pointers per game, which is last in the ACC. The Hokies can knock down three-pointers when they take them, but they don't get many looks from the outside.

This game is going to be a very hard-fought contest that could go down to the wire. If the Hokies win, they still have a good shot to get to 20 wins and make the NCAA tournament. If they lose, then things will start looking pretty bleak. I think this game could possibly mean a little more to Virginia Tech, who always plays very hard against Virginia. If that's the case, it could mean the difference between a win and a loss.

It has been 744 days since our hoopster Hokies were able to beat Virginia. Three straight Virginia wins last year, all of which were by five points or less, and behind that a five point UVA win to close 2005. Not only that, but Virginia has won eight of the last ten games head to head. Le ouch!

Virginia has won seven straight ACC games and is by all accounts the hottest ACC team right now. That seven in a row streak is quite intriguing however, as Virginia has shot 44% from the floor during their victorious septa-span. That's basically only about average, maybe C+ quality shooting in today's game. But Virginia has held four of their last five opponents in the 60's for scoring output. Virginia is also 63rd in offensive rebounding and 13th in defensive board work on the year, and checks in at 34th from the FT-line on the year.

Now for the intriguing part ... Virginia is only ranked 249th in scoring defense on the year. So the cavs have made an effort level adjustment at the defensive end, ratcheting up their stop-unit intensity of late, as effort is always a signature of any Coach Leitao hoops team. You can also see this effort manifest itself in the fact that Virginia is +6 in rebounding margin during their seven game win streak. Our Hokies are -10.5 in rebounding margin during our two game skid. If this game is anywhere near -16.5 boards the wrong way, we may have to recite the Treaty of Versailles. Further, it is defense that is the sole difference between these two teams right now. Take a look at these head to head vitals over our last respective five games: offensive scoring: +0.6 for Virginia, 3-point%: +0.6% for Virginia, FT%: +1.1% for Virginia. But Virginia is 8.4 points of scoring defense better over that same stretch. In other words: Defense wins Commonwealth Cups.

On our side a lot has been made of what is, or is not wrong with Coleman Collins. But going up against a 2-headed backcourt monster like UVA's $ean $ingletary and J.R. Reynolds, it's really Jamon Gordon's recent 32% shooting slump that will tell the tale. If Jamon can find his stroke, the Hokies have a decent enough chance to beat Virginia and their 2004 re-mix tour of the St. Joe's backcourt-heavy team that was lead by Jameer Nelson and Delonte West. But if Gordon is still slumped, Z will not be enough all by himself to out duel the twin rapier backcourt from C'ville of $ingletary and Reynolds.

This one is basically a coin-toss in my book, one that favors the Hokies slightly, mainly because Tech is playing at home. In C'ville, I'd give Virginia the slight edge. Seems like another four point game to me, and we seem on our way to a 1-1 split on the year.