The BCS. That one acronym launches a litany of animated and confusing arguments. "Roy Kramer has this thing structured to favor his own conference... SOS is weighted too heavily... SOS isn't weighted heavily enough... A team with a loss shouldn't be able to pass an undefeated team... someone stole my Chalupa... blah blah blah blah..." Most of these heated conversations take place because people are in the dark about the specifics of the BCS, or because someone really did steal your Chalupa.

Last year, Hokie fans turned a blind eye toward the BCS since their team wasn't part of the National Championship picture. My, how things can change in one short year. The plain facts are that the BCS matters for only one thing... the National Championship Game. The BCS decides which two teams get to play in the contest, but has no say in any other matchups. Oh sure, there are BCS rules designating conference alignments to top tier bowls, but the actual BCS standings have no impact on the chosen opponents. Those decisions are made by the bowl committees who choose from conference winners and other eligible teams.

However, this year the Hokies are smack dab in the middle of the title hunt, so Tech alumni everywhere are polishing up on the BCS rules to determine whether or not their team will get the shaft. How ironic. Did you ever imagine there would be a day when an Orange Bowl bid would be a let down?

With their win over Temple, the Hokies locked themselves into a BCS bowl berth, and regardless of the destination, I am ecstatic with this dream season. A Miami New Year's celebration would be just as enjoyable as the Big Easy.

So, how does the BCS work, and how can fans figure out the results ahead of time? The BCS is actually a fairly simple formula consisting of four equal components: 1. Losses 2. Poll Average 3. Computer Poll Average 4. Strength of Schedule. As in golf, the lower your score, the better your placement.

Losses are self-explanatory; you gain one point in the BCS equation for every loss. The Poll Average is just as easy to explain too. A team's Poll Average is the average of their ranking in the AP and Coach's Polls. So, if a team was ranked 2 in one poll and 3 in the other, their average rank would be 2.5 and they would gain 2.5 BCS points.

This is the point where the BCS gets a little more confusing and debates get started. 8 computers figure into this year's BCS for one fourth of the total calculation. The BCS chose several sources to dilute the importance of any one computer poll. The highest computer ranking (i.e., the largest number -- in other words, a ranking of 5 is higher than ranking of 2) for each team gets tossed out, so each individual computer ranking has a 1/7 impact on the Computer Poll Average. Therefore, if a team moves one spot in a computer poll, their BCS score changes by 0.143. This is the area that has the greatest impact on VT right now.

As was witnessed several weeks ago, with Tennessee passing Tech in the BCS rankings, it is possible for a team with a loss to pass an undefeated team in the computer polls when victories are either marginal or decisive. If Tech flip-flops position in just one computer poll with Nebraska, VT will lose 0.143 BCS points and the Cornhuskers would gain 0.143 points resulting in a 0.286 BCS differential. Flip-flop in two polls and the Big Red Machine gains 0.571 BCS points. The Hokies are #2 in the BCS this week, but hold a tentative 0.63 point lead over Nebraska. Flip-flop in 3 computer polls, and the Hokies could drop to #3 by a 0.22 BCS margin.

Strength of Schedule is determined by adding together 2/3 of your opponent's win ratio with 1/3 of your opponent's opponent's win ratio. Each team then is ranked depending upon who has the highest cumulative score and the toughest schedule. The ranking is then divided by 25 to determine the BCS points. So, the team with the toughest schedule gets a ranking of 1, and they receive 1/25 BCS points, or 0.04 points. Tech's SOS is currently the 66th toughest. 66/25 = 2.64. Nebraska's schedule is currently the 21st toughest, so they gain 0.84 BCS points. A little confusing maybe, but it is straightforward. The Hokies took a big hit by playing Temple which only has a 2-9 record, but actually look to improve their Strength of Schedule component as 8-2 Boston College comes to Lane Stadium while Nebraska plays 6-4 Colorado. Teams with worse SOS components have greater chances of improving, but every spot gained only results in a reduction of 0.04 BCS points.

The BCS is still in a transitive phase, changing slightly each year as the different components are tweaked. A recent change will actually favor the Hokies in their quest for New Orleans. The BCS will no longer count 1-AA playoff games in the SOS calculations. It's hard to tell exactly how this will affect the Hokies, but it can't hurt. Since the first two weeks of 1-AA playoffs occur before the final BCS ratings come out, a loss by the James Madison Dukes would have reflected badly on the Hokie's SOS calculation.

The BCS standings only impact the National Championship game, so only a few teams each year will even be bothered by the annual BCS brouhaha. However, now that Virginia Tech's eyes have been opened to the potential downfalls, the Hokies can look to the future with clearer vision. Before the BCS, scheduling for success simply meant ensuring OOC wins. Now, if a team has an eye on a championship run, scheduling for success takes on a different meaning altogether.

Strength of Schedule is an important factor. If VT was ranked among the top 25 schedules in terms of strength this year, the Hokies would drop 2 BCS points and there would be no controversy. Weaver and others can't be faulted, though. No one in the athletic department expected Tech to be in this position with a freshman QB manning the helm.

However, Tech's stated position is to win a National Championship. Many people will be looking for a repeat performance from Tech next year, but I think there will be too many voids created on defense for that to happen. A team losing 7 senior defensive starters is a tough obstacle to overcome. There's plenty of talent waiting in the wings, but they will need to gain some experience before they can perform up to championship levels. The year I would target for the championship run is 2001. That year, Tech has the same favorable home schedule with Miami and Syracuse at home, Vick will be a Junior competing for the Heisman with almost all of his offensive firepower intact, and the talented defensive redshirts from this year will have some experience.

But 2001 will put the Hokies in the same predicament as this year. The Hokie's OOC schedule consists of UVa, UConn, Western Michigan, and Central Florida. This year, Tech benefited with unexpectedly good performances from JMU and UAB. To be honest, Tech's been lucky this year.

Don't expect similar seasons from 2001's OOC slate. But, this year was a surprise and the 2001 schedule was set up using the same previous misconceptions. This year opened Tech's eyes to the BCS though, so Virginia Tech won't remain blind to 2001's potential. Jim Weaver has already helped steer Tech into uncharted waters, so don't be surprised if he manages some sort of scheduling coups for that year too. Dream Weaver vs. the BCS ... it sounds good enough to be the WWF's main event.