Saturday October 11th, 2003, noon Eastern

TV: ESPN (national)

Forecast (from WeatherUnderground.com):
Click the "Blacksburg Weather" link to the right.
As of Thursday, 2:30 pm, "Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of showers. Highs around 65."

Click here for TechSideline.com's VT/Syracuse roster card

2003 Syracuse Preview
by Jeff Ouellet

In 2002, four teams, all conference rivals, defeated the Virginia Tech Hokies, frustrating hopes for a truly memorable season. This season, after playing five teams that simply didn’t have the talent to compete, the 5-0 and fourth-ranked Hokies embark upon a crucial four game stretch where they play each of the teams that bested them last year. The cupcake portion of VT’s schedule ends this Saturday.

Coming into Lane Stadium this week is a suddenly resurgent Syracuse program. Many, including me, were already doing the postmortem on the ‘Cuse football program, given the fact the Orangemen were coming off a 4-8 season, were excluded from the ACC after the conference machinations were done, and are led by the only coach in a BCS conference who has less job security than Ron Zook. To steal a line from the late Jim Valvano, SU fans gave Coach Pasqualoni a lifetime contract and then declared him dead.

After a shaky opening in which SU barely beat, in triple overtime, a UNC team without a pulse, the Orangemen fell at home to Louisville. Those two teams together gained – gasp – 956 yards in total offense. Rather than throwing in the towel, the ‘Cuse regrouped and beat UCF 38-14 and smoked a pretty good Toledo team 34-7, holding the two of them to a far more respectable 709 combined total yards.

SU has established an offensive identity in the form of Walter Reyes, a junior tailback who is leading the nation in rushing yards (170.2 per game), all purpose yards (193.2 per game) and scoring (15.5 points per game). Reyes has emerged from a good back, perhaps the fourth or fifth best in the Big East, to a legitimate Heisman Trophy contender if Syracuse can win enough games.

Now the 3-1 Orange face a Hokie team that they have beaten two consecutive years, and they rightfully are showing no fear. Although Pitt seems to be the singular Big East team with the best offensive concept of attacking VT, Syracuse is the school that has best handled the VT rushing attack. With average defensive talent, the ‘Cuse held the Hokies to 90 yards rushing in 2001 and 55 yards rushing in 2002 (admittedly that might be because they were playing a cover zero on Earnest Wilford and they got beat like a rented mule for it, but they still shut down the running game and, more importantly, they WON the game).

The Syracuse offense has been very effective this year. The Orangemen average 276 rushing yards per game, fourth in the nation, and they are eighth in the nation with 466 total yards per game. Syracuse has as diverse an offensive attack as anyone VT plays, as they have the personnel to run the I formation, a "jumbo" two tight end package, the freeze option, and the spread formation. Offensive coordinator George DeLeone has been at Syracuse for 14 years, and he does a very good job of mixing up his play calls.

Syracuse came into this season with two excellent tailbacks, Reyes and SO Damien Rhodes, but the 5’10" 205 lb. Reyes has established himself as the go-to guy this fall. His numbers at this point are pretty overwhelming: Reyes has a gaudy 7.4 per-carry average, and he has 10 touchdowns in only 4 games (a Suggs-ish pace if projected over the course of the season). Reyes isn’t an overnight wonder: he averaged 6.2 yards per carry last year during a breakout season that saw him gain 1,135 rushing yards and garner 17 touchdowns. Reyes has a unique running style, as he is extremely patient and sets up his blocks well. He is much more difficult to tackle than his 205 lb. frame would suggest, and he has good speed. Reyes also is a receiving threat, as he is third on the team with 12 catches, 4 per game, with an average gain of 7.8 yards per completion.

Rhodes is also a very capable backup. He gained 568 rushing yards last year and has excellent receiving skills. He has put on a substantial amount of weight since last season, which makes him tougher to tackle. Rhodes is fourth on the team with eight receptions.

The path for the R & R men is cleared by 6’0", 240 SR FB Thump Belton. Belton is not a big offensive threat, as he only averages a little over 3 carries per game, but with a name like that, he simply has to be mentioned in any game preview.

The man behind center for the ‘Cuse is 6’1", 233 lb. SR quarterback R.J. Anderson. Prior to this season, Anderson has shown some flashes of being a playmaker, and he made some big plays against the Hokies in Lane in 2001. In fact, his elusiveness was a huge factor in that SU upset. Last season, however, Anderson lost his job to Troy Nunes and was relegated to the bench. He might not have kept his job this year but for the unfortunate knee injury to impressive quarterback prospect Perry Patterson.

Anderson has done more than just survive, though, and this season he has been a legitimate weapon for Syracuse. He is completing 65 percent of his tosses with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. He is protecting the ball, something that any offensive coach loves to see. He also is the third leading rusher on the team, although his 3.5 per carry average is not overwhelming.

The big name at wide receiver is 6’5", 233 lb. SR Johnnie Morant. Morant was more hyped coming out of high school than even Larry Fitzgerald, yet before this season he was more well known for dropping passes and for off-the-field incidents than production. Morant knows fully well the NFL scouts are watching this year, and he has turned up his game to the point where four games in he has 21 catches for 375 yards, a 17.9 average. He had two monster games against UNC and Louisville, but in his last two outings, Morant only had six catches for 74 yards. That could be a product of the fact that Walter Reyes was running wild; it also might be indicative of some of the inconsistency that Morant has had during his career. Make no mistake about it, though, Morant is, athletically speaking, as gifted as anyone VT will face all year save perhaps Fitzgerald (he’s faster than Fitz, but no one has Fitzgerald’s body control and ability to go up and get the ball out of the air).

Jamel Riddle, another big time receiver and special teams player, has not been cleared to play because of academic issues. He’s burned the Hokies on punt returns in the past, particularly in the last upset in Lane, so his absence won’t make VT shed any tears.

Stepping in for Riddle at wide receiver is 6’0", 192 JR Jared Jones. Jones is a possession receiver, as he has only averaged 9.5 yards per catch on 15 receptions. SU plays two tight ends, with Lenny Cusumano being the preferred blocker and Joe Donnelly being better in the passing game. Donnelly was nursing an injury, but he seems to be ready to go after the off week. Donnelly at 6’3" and 252 lbs. has some wide receiver type skills, and the Orange even considered giving him snaps there.

The Syracuse offensive line is a really good group, and they haven’t received near the publicity they deserve. In fact, collectively they may be the most underrated position group in the Big East. SU returns four starters, including both tackles, from a line that helped them ring up 604 yards against the Hokies last year, with 403 of them coming through the air and 201 on the ground.

The best player on the offensive line is 6’2", 298 lb. SR center Nick Romeo. Romeo is a future pro, and other than big Jake Grove he is the best center in the conference. The other four starters all are at least 6’4" and are within a buffet breakfast of 300 pounds, if they aren’t already there.

Although evaluating an offensive line without game film is always subjective, the 5.7 yards per carry average and the fact that the line has only given up 3 sacks all year suggests this is an impressive group. Moreover, even with a fifth year senior like Anderson at quarterback, the line deserves credit because he has yet to throw an interception.

SU defensive coordinator Chris Rippon has stopped VT’s running game cold for the past three seasons, really, if you take away Michael Vick’s improbable scramble at the end of the 2000 game in the Dome. He has done that by playing eight and nine guys in the box and leaving his corners outside to man up with the VT wide receivers. He has played a fair amount of bump and run which can be dangerous when there isn’t two deep help available.

Statistically, the Orangemen have not been that good on defense this year. They are giving up 416.2 yards per game, with most of the damage (286.8) being through the air. The SU defense is 89^th in pass efficiency rating, but the problem isn’t necessarily with the secondary. Syracuse only has one sack on the season, despite opponents having 172 passing attempts against them, so they simply aren’t putting that much pressure on opposing quarterbacks.

With respect to the ground game, opponents are averaging 4.1 yards per carry and 130 total yards per game. Syracuse has not been a shutdown defense against the run, but they are stronger in that area than against the pass.

Syracuse returned all four starters on their defensive line, so it is a bit of a surprise that they haven’t had more luck with their pass rush. The biggest name is 6’2", 285 lb. SR Louis Gachelin, who appeared to be an all league candidate in the preseason. Gachelin’s numbers aren’t impressive, however, as he has only 16 tackles with 1 tackle for a loss on the season. His partner inside, 6’4", 302 lb. SR Christian Ferrara, has been the leading tackler among the defensive linemen with 21 stops, and he has three tackles for a loss to his credit. Both Gachelin and Ferrara are solid players.

Outside, the Orangemen have 6’5", 242 lb. SO James Wyche, who has 14 tackles, and the other end spot has been shared by JR Julian Pollard and SR Josh Thomas. Thomas was the starter last year, but Pollard statistically has had the greater impact this season.

The heart and soul of this defense is senior middle linebacker Rich Scanlon. Scanlon, 6’2 and 240, is third in the nation, as he averages almost 14 tackles per game. Scanlon played outside last year, so obviously he has some speed, but moved inside with the departure of Clifton Smith. Scanlon is an outstanding student, both on and off the field, so it won’t be easy to fool him with multiple formations. Getting through SU’s defensive tackles to get to Scanlon will be a key for the VT running game.

The returning starter at strongside linebacker, Jameel Dumas, appears unlikely to play against the Hokies because of an injury at the time I am writing this preview. Kelvin Smith is a freshmen who has started in place of Dumas, and he has 20 total tackles on the year and an interception. Smith is undersized for the strongside at 6’2", 215. The weakside linebacker is SO Kellen Pruitt. Pruitt is fourth on the team in tackles with 32, including 4 for a loss, and he also has an interception. He appears to be an emerging playmaker.

The Orange secondary only had one returning starter, corner Steve Gregory, but they have received on the job training. The second leading tackler on the team is strong safety Diamond Ferri, a junior who spent his first two years running the football. Ferri is well built and has 43 stops on the season, with three tackles for losses included. The other safety, sophomore Anthony Smith, has been in on 42 tackles and leads the team with two interceptions. He also has recovered a fumble. Smith doesn’t have prototype size as he only weighs 186 on a 6’0" frame.

Gregory is a former blue chip recruit who has been receiving some all-league mention. As a true freshman last year Gregory received national acclaim because of his very high passes defensed numbers (19 break-ups and 2 interceptions). Those stats indicate somewhat of a Pyrrhic victory; while he did make some plays, people also threw at him an awful lot. Nonetheless, he flashed signs of being a very good college football player, especially for a player that young. This year he is fifth on the team with 29 tackles, and he has an interception to his credit. Gregory is 5’11", 178.

The other starting corner likely will be fellow sophomore Thomas Whitfield. Whitfield started only his second game in SU’s last outing against Toledo, and he earned Big East Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts. He had eight tackles, including 1.5 for a loss, half a sack (which ties him for the team lead) and a pass breakup. Redshirt freshman Terrell Lemon will also see some time.

Syracuse has won the special teams battle the last two years, and not coincidentally, has also won the game. It will also be a key factor in this year’s clash, and I have no doubt that both coaches are emphasizing it this week during practice.

Syracuse overall has been okay on special teams this year, but nothing spectacular. The highlight has been the kickoff return game where SU ranks seventh nationally with a 27.6 per return average. Morant handles the bulk of the work, and he is very dangerous with his size and speed. He averages nearly 30 yards per return, so Coach Beamer will likely try to keep the ball out of his hands by kicking through the end zone or perhaps kicking the ball short.

True freshman corner Marcus Clayton is the SU punt returner. He has averaged 7.8 yards per return on 10 attempts, but logic dictates that a 5’8" corner from Florida probably has some speed and a little wiggle to his game, so he likely is a threat. As with most freshman, ball security might be a concern.

The Orange kicking game is in the capable hands of JR Collin Barber, who is 7-8 overall on field goals, and that includes 6-7 from more than 30 yards out. He has had a very solid season.

Syracuse has a 6’5" freshman named Brendan Carney handling the punting chores. Carney averages 40 yards per kick and has a huge leg, but his height and long striding style makes him susceptible to blocked punts. In fact, he has had one blocked each of the last two games, so expect Beamer to come after him. His net average of 31.9 yards per punt is not good and that is partially the responsibility of the coverage unit.

Unlike many Hokie fans, I don’t think this game is going to be smooth sailing. I believe the SU offense is going to be able to run the ball against us, and I think Reyes will break 100 yards. I also think the VT defense will give up some plays to Morant and Donnelly (if he can play) in the passing game. However, the law of averages comes into play at some point, and I have a feeling the Hokies will get to Anderson and he will make a couple mistakes in this game.

The Syracuse defense is improving, and I think they will come into Lane intending to shut down the VT rushing attack and make the offense one dimensional. Expect VT to operate a lot out of spread and H back formations because that will enable the Hokies to throw a lot of quick slants and outs while also spreading out the SU defense to allow KJ to pick his holes on delayed and misdirection handoffs. It seems to me that VT should come into this game expecting the pass to open up the run, not vice versa.

Once the pass is established, I expect the Hokies to try to run the ball consistently because they will want to control the clock and keep the defense fresh (and Reyes and that offensive line on the sideline). If VT has a lead, I think KJ and Humes will get a lot of second half carries.

One cautionary note that hopefully won’t come into play, but I’ll mention it: Syracuse is outscoring their opponents 34-3 in the fourth quarter thus far this year. The fourth quarter, admittedly with many backups playing, has not been good to the Hokies, who have only outscored opponents 56-42 in the fourth (166-40 in quarters 1-3).

Syracuse should mix in a little more zone this year after getting torched by Randall and Wilford last year, but I think they will be committed enough to stopping the run that VT won’t see many seven man fronts. Expect the SU safety, most likely Anthony Smith, to shade toward Earnest, and that will give Chris Shreve, Justin Hamilton or whomever else a chance to make some plays if they can beat a corner.

I see a high-scoring game here, but I think a big play in the punting game and a key turnover or two by Anderson will be the difference.

Will Stewart's Take: It's good to be nervous about a game, isn't it? It's good to have a little fire in your belly, a little respect for the opponent, and a little thirst for revenge.

In the 2000 season, the Hokies broke Syracuse's Dome curse with a 22-14 win, and I think a lot of Tech fans wrote the Orangemen off as serious rivals in the wake of that game (I know I did). At the time, the Hokies had beaten Syracuse three out of the last four games, and the balance of power in this historically hard-fought series appeared to be shifting.

In 2001, going into an October 27th game against Syracuse at Lane Stadium, the Hokies were 6-0 and had won an amazing 28 out of their last 30 games. Since then, including a that 22-14 loss on that day, Tech is "just" 17-8, with a 1-7 record against Syracuse, WVU, Miami, and Pitt (I know, you've heard it all before).

Syracuse has hung some painful losses on Tech in the short but wild history of this rivalry: a 28-21 loss in 1994 that derailed Tech's 4-0 season; a 52-21 whipping in 1996 that was Tech's only regular-season loss that year; a classic 28-26 battle in 1998; the 22-14 stunner in 2001; and last year's gut-wrenching 50-42 triple-overtime thriller.

The Hokies have dealt the Cuse their own body blows in return. Very few rivalries have featured so many amazing games in just a ten-year span, and very few rivalries have produced so many unpredictable outcomes. Who saw the 62-0 whitewash coming in 1999? Why did a great QB like Donovan McNabb only lead the Cuse to a total of 10 points in two games at Lane Stadium? Who would have guessed that last year's sorry SU team would give up 42 points to the Hokies and still manage to beat them?

Nothing in this contest would surprise me, from a 50-0 Hokie win to a Hokie loss. But if you remove your emotions and play the odds, several things become apparent:

1. It's unlikely that Syracuse will beat the Hokies twice in a row at Lane Stadium.
2. It's unlikely that Syracuse will beat Virginia Tech a third time in a row overall (though I'm sure the Miami Hurricane fans were incredulous at VT's five-game winning streak over UM in the mid-late 90's).
3. It's unlikely that every little bounce and whim of fate and luck will continue to go SU's way, as it has in the last two games. The 2001 game in particular was a contest in which every twist and turn fell in favor of Syracuse.

All signs point to a Hokie victory. That's not disrespecting Syracuse, a team that matches up pretty well with the Hokies. It's simply stating that the odds are against them beating the Hokies yet again, particularly in Lane Stadium. And making a game prediction is all about playing the odds.

Syracuse will get their yards and points. They'll coach well, and they'll play well, I think, but this time, the majority of the bounces, the referees' calls, and the breaks will go the way of the Hokies, and Tech will win.

Will Stewart's Prediction: VT 35, Syracuse 21

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