Sunday, August 31st, 2003, 3:00 pm Eastern

TV: ESPN (national)

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Click the "Blacksburg Weather" link to the right.
As of midnight Wednesday, "Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 70s."

Click here for TechSideline.com's VT/UCF roster card

UCF Preview
by Jeff Ouellet

Finally, the much anticipated 2003 football season is here! In August, hope springs anew for any college football fan, but this season in Blacksburg is a little bit different. National gurus are giving the Hokies unprecedented publicity, both as a team and with respect to individual awards, people close to the program have expressed incredible optimism, and even the casual fan can see that this is the deepest team VT has ever had as the Hokies have two quality players at almost every position.

While VT has made its reputation as a well coached team with hard working players, don’t be fooled – this year’s edition is one of the ten most talented teams in the country, something that I don’t believe VT has ever been able to say previously. However, talent alone won’t win, and things like team chemistry, injuries, luck and special teams will determine if this year is very good or truly memorable for the Hokie Nation.

First on this year’s slate is Central Florida, a Mid American Conference team that finished second last year behind Marshall in the East Division of the MAC. Central Florida finished 7-5, with loses at Penn State by 3, at Arizona State, at Marshall by 5, to Toledo by 3 and to Syracuse by 3. Four of their five losses were to bowl bound teams, and four of those games were within a touchdown of going the other way.

Brash Head Coach Mike Kruczek leads the Golden Knights. Kruczek is a brilliant offensive mind who never met a pass he wouldn’t call. UCF is a program on the rise, as the Golden Knights benefit from a recruiting perspective from being in Florida and from their offensive scheme, which makes it easier to bring in athletes.

Unfortunately for Kruczek, he has had an unbelievable number of players lost to academics, injury and attrition since last spring, so opening with the Hokies is a pretty tough task. Kruczek has spent two weeks going over VT’s schemes with the expectation that the extra time will help his players be more confident on Sunday.

The Golden Knights return fifth year senior Ryan Schneider at quarterback. After initially begging to be awarded a UCF scholarship, Schneider then proceeded to start from his redshirt freshman season onward, and in the process he has thrown for over 9,000 passing yards and 69 touchdowns. He is on pace to break almost all of Daunte Culpepper’s career passing records at UCF. Schneider is a tough kid who has solid size (6’2", 220) and a terrific touch. He does not have a gun for an arm, but his field awareness has kept him from taking too much of a pounding.

At running back, UCF returns 5’11" 220 JR Alex Haynes, who rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. Haynes is a physical runner with a decent burst. Ballyhooed JuCo transfer tailback P.J. Smith never made his grades (Smith was projected as the Conference Newcomer of the Year on offense by The Sporting News), and projected starting fullback Andreal Curry is also gone. JR Dee Brown will now step in at fullback. My guess is that Brown will be used to help a lot with the VT pass rush.

On paper, the wide receivers took a huge hit. UCF lost Doug Gabriel, a fifth round NFL draft choice, and Jimmy Fryzel. That duo combined for 2,362 receiving yards, 133 catches and 16 touchdowns. Combine that with the preseason injury of good-looking redshirt freshman Andre Sumpter, and you might think UCF was in trouble. However, I don’t expect that to be the case.

5’9", 165 lb. JR Tavaris Capers has 4.2 speed and has 456 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns last season. Capers not only has great speed, but he also is very elusive. He is Schneider’s go to guy at this point. Fellow smurf Luther Huggins (5’11", 180) also will start, and he has great quickness as well. The final starter – assuming UCF goes 3 wide to start, which seems likely – is prototype 6’5" 200 lb. SO Brandon Marshall. Marshall has a big upside and statistically should have a breakout season this fall. Expect prized freshman recruit Mike Walker to also figure in the gameplan. Although these guys are generally inexperienced, I think they will be pretty good.

At tight end, 6’6", 245 lb. SO Darcy Johnson has been nursing an injury to his left knee, but he is back at practice and he should be ready to go this weekend. Johnson is a nice athlete and I wouldn’t be surprised if he had some passes thrown his way. 6’3", 280 lb. Michael Gaines is a legitimate pro prospect at tight end, but he is waiting on NCAA approval before he can play. Gaines was a former blue chip recruit out of high school who has had some academic issues. As of now, it doesn’t seem likely he will play this weekend.

UCF’s offensive line is an absolute mess. The Golden Knights have lost four players on the line to either injury or academics since the spring, and it is entirely possible they will start three guys on their offensive line that haven’t ever taken a college snap. First, though, the good news: 6’8", 340 OT Kyle Watkins is a returning starter that has a reputation as a very good pass blocker. In fact, he has never given up a sack in college. With his frame, he will get a serious NFL look. The other returning starter is 6’4", 300 SR David Ashkinaz, a tough guy who is solid in almost all respects. He could play guard or tackle, and the UCF depth chart has him at left guard.

The other three offensive line starters change daily, but as of the time I’m writing this, it looks like SO Adam Butcher is going to be starting at guard, R-FR Dan Veenstra is going to play tackle, and R-FR Cedric Gagne-Marcoux will be the center. Marcoux has a positive buzz; the other two are going to be facing a serious baptism under fire. If healthy, R-FR Seth Ulsh could very well claim a starting spot at guard as well (Ulsh is expected to practice this week and play against VT). Junior College OG Adam Toeniskoetter also could figure into the mix.

UCF’s inexperience is not limited to the starters. It is possible that when they hit the field in Blacksburg, the Golden Knights will only have one healthy backup offensive lineman that has ever taken a college snap. That is not good news against VT’s defensive front and Bud Foster’s multiple looks.

The UCF defense has also suffered its fair share of attrition. The loss of DE Elton Patterson, an NFL draft pick, was expected. However, the loss of rising JR star Rashad Jeanty was not. Jeanty had the look of an NFL player, although not the production last season, but he flunked out of school and now is playing in Canada in the CFL. So, by necessity the strength of the UCF defense will be inside.

UCF uses a gap based system on defense which means that their players – particularly their defensive linemen – must maintain leverage and hold their ground. If they don’t, big plays can ensue. However, if they do maintain their gaps, that permits open blitzing lanes and it allows the Golden Knights to be extremely aggressive.

UCF is both deep and fairly big inside. Starting defensive tackles DeMarcus Johnson and Larry Brown go 290 and 295, respectively. The Golden Knights will rotate five players at defensive tackle, so fatigue might not be much of an issue. On the outside, 6’6", 268 lb. Paul Carrington is only a sophomore, but he could have a breakout year as a pass rusher. He added 18 lbs. to his frame during the offseason. The other starter at DE will be JR Trenton Jordan, but don’t be surprised to see a platoon system for UCF. A lot of players will probably rotate at defensive end as well.

Blue chip junior college recruit Chad Mascoe was supposed to be the answer for the UCF defense last year at middle linebacker, but he suffered through an injury riddled year last season and then was lost to academics for this fall. To compensate, UCF moved their leading returning tackler (127 last year), 5’11", 230 lb. JR Stanford Rhule, inside. Rhule is expected to play this week, but he has had some residual problems from an ACL surgery on his knee. If he can’t go or is ineffective, it would be a blow for UCF.

The other two starters on the outside are JRs Gerren Bray and Antoine Poe. Neither started last year, but they both are good athletes that can run and cover. Poe in particular could emerge this year as a playmaker. Despite the loss of Mascoe, this is a solid unit if Rue is healthy. If Rue cannot play, the starter may be physically gifted junior college transfer Craig Harvey. Harvey is a talent, but he also wasn’t cleared to practice until last week. Tough for a kid to miss the first ten days of practice and then be mentally ready for the first game against VT-type talent.

The secondary is the strength of the defense. Strong safety Atari Bigby was an all conference player last year, and he is getting serious NFL looks. He is not great in coverage but he is a hitter at a solid 215 lbs. Free safety Peter Sands is a returning starter with size (6’2", 215 lbs.) and the ability to cover a lot of ground at free safety.

The third returning starter in the secondary is corner Omar Laurence, a 5’11", 180 lb. SO with speed and the experience of having faced some tough players last year. The new face in the secondary is Maryland transfer Rovel Hamilton, a 6’0" JR. While Hamilton may be new, he certainly hasn’t blended into the background. Almost all of the UCF practice reports note that he had an interception, so he seems to be making plays all over the field during preseason practice. UCF knows how to coach up defensive backs as their past two starting corners were NFL draftees.

I have no doubt that Kruczek is spending a lot of time in this area. To show how important he believes it to be, this year UCF hired a full time special teams coach for the first time. Joe Robinson is going to get the opportunity to earn his paycheck this week.

Junior College transfer Scott Sevin looks to be the punter right now, but it is hard to believe his experience will have prepared him for VT’s Pride and Joy team. Sevin won the job over two other candidates, but if he struggles early don’t be surprised if the Golden Knights pull him. SO Matt Prater is a returning starter at kicker and he made 14of 21 field goals and 44 of 47 extra points, but consistency was an issue.

Capers is a very solid punt returner as he has very good moves and quickness. He is a threat. Kickoff returns likewise should be solid with the athletes UCF has.

UCF struggled covering kicks last year, and more emphasis will be placed on the area this fall. The staff thinks that are improved here, and they will get a chance to prove it with DeAngelo Hall returning punts and Mike Imoh and Cedric Humes handling kickoffs for the Hokies.

On offense, I think UCF will make a token attempt to get Haynes the ball early. I can’t imagine him having much success, however, so I think Kruczek will resort to his roots and start throwing the ball early and often. He has spoken about being committed to a balanced offense this year, but it’s a lot easier to talk about changing a philosophy than to actually do it.

With that being said, Kruczek is a smart guy. He is not going to be regularly throwing deep balls, or any seven step drop patterns for that matter. Expect him to put Capers and Huggins in the slot and throw quick passes, hoping that his receivers can make a rover/whip miss and create big plays. UCF has got to be concerned with the VT defensive line overwhelming his extraordinarily inexperienced offensive line.

From the VT perspective, I would expect defensive coordinator Bud Foster to substitute liberally to wear down the UCF front. Throwing nine defensive linemen at UCF will be tough for them to handle, I suspect. If the game remains close, I would also expect a significant amount of blitzing in the second half. Foster may coach conservatively early to avoid showing future opponents his schemes, but that will go out the window if the game remains in doubt.

Defensively, UCF is bigger than they have been in a while. I believe they will hope that Johnson and Nelson can occupy the VT interior line, while bringing Bigby up as the eighth guy in the box and allowing him to come off the outside corner. That will require Hamilton and Laurence to man up on Ernest Wilford, DeAngelo Hall, and whomever else plays outside, but UCF plays aggressively and I think they will try to challenge the passing game. They are going to have to give something up, and my guess is that they will try to contain the running game with visions of Lee Suggs (from prior meetings) still dancing in their head.

In turn, I would expect VT to counter by throwing some screen passes to KJ (which is a great call against a blitz), as well as taking some shots down the field. If Jones can get cleanly to the second line of defense, he is going to have a huge game.

This could be a challenging opening game for VT. Over the past few years, a lot of throwing teams have put up some big numbers on the Hokies, even if they ultimately lost the game. Still, in a lot of ways this is a good opener. For example, a lot of the things that UCF will be doing on offense are similar to what we will see against Pitt and UVa later, although both of those teams utilize their tight ends more and have (or will have) better power rushing games. It is also nice to face an experienced, heady quarterback like Schneider out of the box so the pass defense gets a feel for where they actually stand now. I think the corners and Jimmy Williams will make plays this season, and they certainly will have the chance to against UCF.

I also think that the injuries and defections on defense will make it tough for the Golden Knights to physically handle the talent on offense for VT. This could be a big game for KJ on the ground, and I’ll be watching to see how the VT interior handles a pretty good group of defensive tackles.

Special teams could be a big mismatch. Don’t be surprised to see Kruczek gamble on a lot of fourth and short plays because he doesn’t want to take the chance of trying to punt with the threat of the block or the return. Fourth down could be an adventure for UCF.

UCF has some talented players, but I can’t see them being physical enough to hang with the Hokies. I have to think that Schneider is going to be hit early and often in this one.

Will Stewart's Take: Historically, UCF has had a lot of trouble stopping VT's power ground game on defense and developing any consistency on offense. The Hokies have very little trouble stopping teams that use the short passing game -- it's the teams that throw it deep that VT has trouble defending for 60 minutes. UCF has never been able to go deep on the Hokies, and with their offensive line problems and Virginia Tech's experience and pass-rushing ability at defensive end, UCF won't be able to sit in the pocket and take those deep shots.

That will leave them with the chip-away strategy on offense, and that just doesn't work consistently against VT (think Clemson, and the hard time they had with VT in 1998, 1999, and the 2000 Gator Bowl). As a matter of fact, that strategy plays right into the design of the Hokie defense, which is designed to force the opponent into long drives, during which they will no doubt make a mistake against Tech's aggressive D.

Defensively, if UCF is not strong on the defensive line, they won't be able to consistently stop the Hokies. My opinion is that this game will be a field-position game, with VT scoring on relatively short drives of 40-60 yards, and UCF struggling to put together longer drives.

The Knights are just a few players away from being a really good team, and the injuries and academic suspensions and the like are keeping them from that next level, for the time being. Combine that with VT's recent history of starting out the season like a ball of fire, and my prediction is very similar to Jeff's.

Will Stewart's Prediction: VT 38, UCF 10.

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