Saturday, November 29th, 2003, 1:00

TV: ABC (click here for coverage map)

Forecast (from WeatherUnderground.com):
Click the "Charlottesville Weather" link to the right.
As of 1:00 am Wednesday: "Mostly clear. Highs in the lower 50s."

Click here for TechSideline.com's VT/UVa roster card

2003 Virginia Preview
by Jeff Ouellet

If the fan bases of both of Virginia's Division I football programs had to describe the 2003 season in cinematic terms, the Hokie Nation might well gravitate towards "Anger Management" while the Cavalier faithful would cast an eye towards "Searching for Bobby Fisher." Both programs have underachieved with respect to preseason expectations, but a win over an in-state rival will undoubtedly soothe one of the two Virginia constituencies for the moment.

The Hokies come into the game ranked 20^th in the country with an 8-3 record, while the Cavs are 6-5. VT appears to be fading fast, with a tough loss at Pittsburgh followed by underwhelming performances against Temple and BC. In the last three weeks, Virginia lost on the road to NC State and Maryland, but then rebounded with a nice win at home over Georgia Tech. The Cavs have played well at home, losing only a tough 19-14 decision to FSU.

Virginia's offense this year has been average. UVa is 70^th in the nation in total offense at 373.5 yards per game, with 126 of those yards coming on the ground (82^nd in the nation) and 247.5 of them through the air (36^th in the nation). The scoring offense is ranked slightly higher nationally, 53^rd, as the Cavs score 27.8 points per game.

Virginia is led by 6'5", 240 lb. SR quarterback Matt Schaub. Schaub is a very good thrower with his strength being his accuracy. He was last year's Player of the Year in the ACC. He won't repeat because he missed almost three full games this year due to a shoulder injury (he's fine now), but regardless he is UVa's playmaker on offense. He is not a running threat, although he has good pocket awareness.

Schaub is third in the nation in completion percentage at an astounding 70.2%, and he averages 261 passing yards per game. His 15 touchdowns to 8 interceptions ratio is good. He also has a quick release and knows how to read defenses: in 326 attempts this year, Schaub has only been sacked 6 times despite a young offensive line. I think Schaub is the most accurate QB VT will face all year.

The bulk of the work in the running game is handled by 6'1", 212 lb. SO Wali Lundy. Lundy is a slasher who is pretty good at running both inside and outside. Despite being limited by injuries during the year, he still has 750 rushing yards (4.2 average per carry) with 6 touchdowns. Lundy is a big threat in the passing game with 25 receptions for nearly ten yards per catch and 3 touchdowns.

The backup tailback is 5'10", 198 lb. JR Alvin Pearman. Pearman is a fantastic receiver that is a primary target when Schaub drops back. He is tied for first on the team with 53 receptions for 418 yards (7.9 average) and 3 touchdowns. Pearman is second in the nation in receptions by a running back.

The fullback is 6'2", 236 lb. SR Kase Luzar. Luzar is not a rushing threat, but he has 13 catches on the year. Luzar also does a good job picking up blitzers, permitting Lundy and Pearman to get downfield in the passing game.

The UVa wide receiver corps is much like BC in that there really isn't a go-to guy now that Billy McMullen is in the pros. The main receiving threat is 6'5", 254 SO TE Heath Miller. Miller is tied for the team lead in catches with 53 for 606 yards and 5 touchdowns. Those numbers place Miller fourth nationally among tight ends for total catches, and third nationally in receiving yards by a tight end. VT has been inconsistent in covering tight ends, with The Chosen One from Miami being contained, but Kris Wilson and the BC tight ends running clear downfield far too often. VT better contain Miller off of bootleg action or it could be a long game.

As for the wide receivers, 6'2", 209 SR Ryan Sawyer is third on the team with 34 catches and he has 430 receiving yards, but he isn't a true downfield threat. The other starter, JR Ottowa Anderson, has 29 catches for 346 yards. Virginia's wide receivers, as a group, don't have great separation ability and have been inconsistent. The group is coming on though, as they combined for 16 catches for 206 yards against N.C. State and 15 catches for 116 yards against Georgia Tech. Although not on the two deep, freshman Deyon Williams is probably the most likely to make a big play against the Hokies. True freshman Fontel Mines from Hermitage in Richmond also has shown flashes.

The Virginia offensive line is very young, and they have performed unevenly this year. The Cavs only average 3.7 yards per carry, but they have limited opponents to 9 sacks. Much like the statistics suggest, Virginia is a stronger pass blocking team, which makes sense given their relative youth and athleticism. The tackles are both undersized sophomores, 6'5", 264 lb. D'Brickshaw Ferguson (LT) and 6'8", 274 lb. Brad Butler (RT). Both have started every game this year. The best run blocker on the line is 6'6", 333 lb. JR RG Elton Brown, a legitimate pro prospect either this year or next. The other guard is true freshman Ian-Yates Cunningham, a 6'6", 309 lb., a heralded recruit coming out of Texas. Continuing the tall and (relatively speaking) thin theme on the Virginia o-line is 6'4", 274 lb. center Zac Yarbrough. Virginia's linemen move well, so expect a lot of pulling and movement on running plays. They aren't a smash mouth team that looks to line up into the I formation and do traditional lead draws. They have struggled converting short yardage situations this year.

The Hokie defense generally matches up well with finesse offenses that focus on the short passing game. However, VT really struggled with BC's tight ends and backs last week, and the Hokies will simply have to play with more discipline or they will get toasted by the Virginia passing offense.

Statistically, the Virginia defense also is average. The Cavs are 71^st nationally in rushing defense, allowing 163.9 yards per game (4.3 per carry), with Maryland torching them on the ground a few weeks ago. In pass efficiency defense, the Cavs fare better, ranking 42nd nationally and allowing nearly 222 yards per game. On the year, Virginia opponents average more yards than the Cavs do.

The strongest statistic for the UVa defense is the one that matters the most: points surrendered. Virginia is 29^th in the country, only permitting opponents 20.7 points per game. Stated differently, Virginia gives up ground but does a better job when their backs are against the wall.

The Cavs play a 3-4, and their defensive line overall has not been very good. 6'7", 280 JR Chris Canty is the star, and he is a player who intrigues NFL scouts. He has been very productive, as he is third on the team with 86 tackles, including 9 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks and 11 quarterback hurries. He is an imposing figure to throw over, and that could be an issue. Bryan Randall had a few passes batted down last week.

Rounding out the front three are noseguard Andrew Hoffman, a 6'5", 285 lb. JR, and 6'3", 269 lb. SO Brennan Schmidt. Schmidt is fifth on the team with 72 tackles but hasn't made a whole lot of negative plays (only four tackles for a loss). Hoffman only has 48 stops, but he has the thankless job of facing double teams constantly, so you would expect his numbers to be low.

Virginia's linebacker corps is young but incredibly athletic and will be very, very good in time. Heralded Ahmad Brooks leads the Cavs in tackles as a true freshman with 94 stops, and he also has 8 tackles for a loss, 2 sacks, 13 quarterback pressures (second on the team) and 5 passes broken up. He is susceptible to play fakes, but he's a 6'4", 249 lb. heat seeking missile. All that is separating Brooks from the NFL first round is a few years, and some work on his technique. He is going to be a special player.

Next to Brooks on the inside is 6'3", 238 lb. R-FR Kai Parham, another top 50 national recruit. Parham hasn't started all year, but he has been productive nonetheless. He has 67 tackles, including four for a loss. Parham has solid size at 6'3", 238 lbs. Parham and Brooks should be a dynamic duo inside for Virginia.

Holding the fort on the outside are 6'4", 230 lb. SO Darryl Blackstock and yet another former blue chip national recruit, 6'1", 233 lb. SR Raymond Mann. Blackstock was a huge impact player last year as a true freshman, but statistically he hasn't had quite as good a season this year. Nonetheless, he is third on the team in tackles with 72, and he has been disruptive with 14 tackles for a loss (far and away the team leader) and 3 sacks (tied for the team lead). Blackstock also leads the team in quarterback pressures. Watch him in third and long situations, as he frequently comes off the corner.

Mann never really fulfilled the promise he had after a great career at Hampton High School. This year his stats are solid as he has 61 tackles, including six for a loss, and he has forced four fumbles, leading the team. Still, he is the kind of player that leaves fans wondering why he never took the final step toward greatness.

The Cavalier secondary has the most experience of any unit on the defense, starting two seniors, a junior, and a freshman. Almondo "Muffin" Curry, all 5'8" of him, is the best corner, and he leads the team with eight passes broken up and five interceptions. He also is a willing run supporter with 53 tackles. Curry has 29 career starts, so he has seen it all. The other corner is R-FR Tony Franklin, who has more prototypical size at 5'11", 185 lbs. The Hokies probably will choose to work on Franklin short and Muffin deep in "jump ball" situations.

At safety Jermaine Hardy is a playmaker. The 5'11", 208 JR is a former corner who is second on the team with 87 tackles. He is aggressive and obviously is a solid cover guy as a former corner. The other safety is veteran Jamaine Winborne, who has 31 career starts, the most of anyone on the Cavaliers. Winborne has 2 interceptions and 7 passes broken up (second on the team).

The Cavs kickers truly exemplify the best of times and the worst of times. Kicker Connor Hughes has been simply sensational as a sophomore. He has connected on 20 of 21 field goals to lead the nation in conversion percentage, including 7-7 from 30-39 yards, 3-4 from 40-49 yards, and an amazing 3-3 from 50 yards plus. It is a crime he didn't make the list of finalists for the Lou Groza Award as the country's best kicker.

Conversely, SO punter Tom Hagan has been downright awful. While Virginia is second in the country in fewest punts returned (only 15 of 60), that in large part has been because Hagan's punts have been so short and/or shanked that it was tough to return them. He is averaging only 34.5 yards per kick, with a net of 32.0. When opponents can get to his kicks, they are averaging 9.7 per return, about average.

Kickoff coverage is solid for the Cavs, as they only yield 20.3 yards per return. The kick return personnel for Virginia are solid, as the kickoff average is 23.7 yards, led by Tony Franklin (25.8 per return), and the versatile and dangerous Marques Hagans handles punts (9.8 per return). Hagans is also a wide receiver/quarterback, and he is a wild card player for Al Groh.

Few VT games cause me to waffle as much as this contest with the Cavs. On one hand, VT has won this game the last four years and has the more experienced team this year. On the other hand, VT has played poorly lately, especially on the road, and Virginia should be in a better state of mind than VT. The Cavs also are healthier, and the potential absence of VT's most consistent DE (Adibi) and DT (Kevin Lewis) would be felt.

Schematically, VT matches up well with UVa's tendencies and personnel. On offense, they don't have any true home run threats. However, this VT defense is as undisciplined as any I can remember, and if our defensive ends/outside linebackers don't stay home on play fakes, we will see Heath Miller and the Virginia running backs with 15 plus combined catches off of play action. The Hokie performance against BC's passing game was very disappointing, and they will get a heavy dose of the same from UVa (albeit with a weaker overall running game).

I will be interested to see how the Hokies defend Schaub. My guess is that they will not blitz him much, and instead drop seven in coverage. VT knows it won't get to Schaub given the short passing game and his ability to read defenses, and I suspect Foster will chose to max cover and hope that the defense tackles well when the short passes are completed. They have not tackled well either of the last two weeks.

Virginia won't be able to stop KJ, and I think he'll exceed 150 yards rushing in this game The issue will be whether Randall can make some plays in the passing game and whether the Hokies have turnovers and key penalties to slow momentum. The Hokies will have to throw the ball some to hold Virginia's linebackers, who likely will be gap blitzing as soon as the game starts.

Truthfully, up until this morning I was picking the Cavs. What exactly changed I can't say, but something now tells me that the Hokies will pull out an ugly win on the road. Maybe it's just because I watch ESPN and realize I can't do any worse than the Swami and Nick Bakay, or maybe it's just wishful thinking. Regardless, the pick is VT in a tight one.

Will Stewart's Take: I waffle on this one, too. I remember 1991, when a dejected Tech team shuffled into Charlottesville and got destroyed, 38-0. I remember 1997, when a struggling, injury-riddled Hokie squad took a worse-than-the-score 34-20 whipping.

Then I remember 2002, when a fading Hokie squad that I picked to lose exercised a great game plan and shut down UVa 21-9.

I look at the matchups, and unlike many teams on VT's schedule (Pitt and WVU, anyone?), the Hoos don't match up well with Tech. That’s encouraging.

I look at two key components where UVa is stronger than VT -- quarterback play and placekicking -- and I think if this thing is close, that will give UVa the edge. That's discouraging.

I think about the Hokie DL injuries, and I worry. I see the Hokie faces on television as they say they're angry and are ready to play … and I don't worry.

I think about how inconsistent the Hokies have been, and I can't see them winning this game, but then again, Frank Beamer has said that Bryan Randall will play the whole game. Will that cure the offense's problems?

Ultimately, though, it comes down to this: You can't keep beating the same team over and over and over, and VT has beaten Virginia four times in a row now. Every successive victory gets harder and harder and harder. Neither team has won five in a row in this series in forty years, since Tech won six in a row from 1958-1963.

These teams both have their flaws, and unfortunately for Tech, their flaws are that they're fading right now, they don't play well on the road, and they don't win close games (unless the other team hands it to them, a la Temple).

I think there are just too many intangibles going Virginia's way in this one, and while my heart wants to pick VT to win, my head doesn't see it. It always makes Hokie fans pitch a fit when I don’t pick the Hokies to win -- I did it in Miami 2001, Miami 2002, WVU 2002, and Virginia 2002 -- but here it comes.

Will Stewart's Prediction: UVa 30, VT 24

TSL Football Page