Wednesday, October 22nd, 2003, 7:45

TV: ESPN (national)

Forecast (from WeatherUnderground.com):
Click the "Morgantown Weather" link to the right.
As of midnight Monday: "Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 40 percent."

Click here for TechSideline.com's VT/WVU roster card

2003 West Virginia Preview
by Jeff Ouellet

Over Columbus Day weekend I was attending a wedding in Tucson with 40 or so Hokies in attendance. After the ceremony one of the attendees, a longtime friend of the groom, encouraged him to bust a move on the dance floor by uttering what became the weekend mantra for all of us: "Show ‘em what I know."

I think Coach Beamer used the same catch phrase during his pregame speech that Saturday morning, as the VT team the staff had seen in practice – not the inconsistent team that struggled at times during the first five games - laid the wood to a solid Syracuse team by the count of 51-7. It was a dominant performance on offense, defense and special teams, and it eased the concerns of many in the Hokie Nation.

Now 6-0 and ranked third in the country, VT travels this Wednesday to play West Virginia, 2-4 overall and 1-1 in conference play. On paper, this game shouldn’t be close, but the Mountaineers have a great home field advantage in Morgantown, some playmakers and more than a little animosity for the ACC-bound Hokies.

WVU head coach Rich Rodriguez, entering his third year at the helm of the Mountaineers, endured a trying 3-8 year in 2001, but he rebounded by doing an excellent job last year. WVU posted a 9-4 record, including wins at VT and Pitt. Rodriguez lost 14 starters from that squad, however, so this year figured to be a rebuilding job.

While WVU’s record this season is subpar, they played Miami incredibly tough at the Orange Bowl losing 22-20 on a field goal in the last minute. The Canes needed a remarkable Kellen Winslow, Jr. grab on 4^th and 13 to even get to the field goal attempt, so WVU has already proven it can hang with the big boys.

Although WVU employs multiple formations, Rodriguez favors the spread offense. WVU does go no-huddle, which makes it more difficult for situational substitutions by the opposing defense,

The running game is the key to WVU’s offensive fortunes. Under Rodriguez, WVU is 0-13 when they rush for less than 200 yards, 14-3 when they rush for over 200. Last year WVU was second in the nation in rushing offense, and they ran for a whopping 263 yards against the Hokies in Lane. This year WVU is not as potent on the ground, but they still average 197.5 rushing yards per game and 4.5 per carry. WVU’s preference for running the ball is underscored by the fact that 68% of their play calls have been rushes, and 57% of their yards have come on the ground.

The key to the WVU ground attack is 5’10", 215 SR tailback Quincy Wilson. Wilson, the son of former Bear all pro Otis Wilson, is fourth in the Big East in yards per game at 105.3 and he averages 4.5 per carry. He has seven touchdowns on the year. Wilson is outstanding in the weight room, and it carries onto the field. He is perhaps the most physical back VT will face all year, and his touchdown reception against Miami is one of college football’s great plays this season. Wilson also is the second leading receiver on the ‘Eers, as he has nine receptions for 72 yards.

Wilson’s backup is also a weapon. Kay-Jay Harris, a much ballyhooed junior college recruit, is a jumbo tailback and physical freak. Despite being 240 pounds, Harris has legitimate big-time speed: against Miami, he caught a wheel pattern and turned it into an 84 yard reception. Anyone that goes that far against the Canes has some serious speed. He is the second leading rusher on the team with 191 yards on the season, including an impressive 6.6 per carry average. SR fullback Moe Fofana is a 250 lb. battering ram. He is a phenomenal blocker in the hole, but don’t look for him to be a threat on the ground. He has zero carries this year.

The quarterback for WVU is returning starter Rasheed Marshall. A 6’1", 190 lb. junior, Marshall has sub 4.5 speed and a strong arm. However, he has not shown a lot of touch, and he can be very inconsistent on his throws. For the year, Marshall completes only 46.7 percent of his passes (49/104), and his 2-1 touchdown to interception ratio is somewhat skewed by the fact he lit up lowly ECU for four touchdowns. WVU only averages 146.7 passing yards per game, but they are a big play passing offense, as they average 16 yards per completion.

Marshall is a capable runner, and he broke Michael Vick’s single season rushing record for a Big East quarterback last year. This season he has only 138 yards rushing while averaging 3.0 yards per carry. Some changes in the offensive line have really hurt his rushing total.

WVU’s receivers have paltry reception totals, in large part because WVU doesn’t complete many passes. The leading receiver is Chris Henry, a 6’4" sophomore who is a great athlete with tremendous deep speed. Henry is averaging over 30 yards per reception and has four touchdowns on only 11 catches. When WVU goes up top, he’s the likely target.

The next leading receivers among the wideouts are 6’2", 185 lb. SR Travis Garvin and 6’2", 205 lb. JR Miquelle Henderson. Garvin is averaging 18.5 per catch on his eight catches, while Henderson – who had almost 500 yards receiving last season – is at 12.5 per catch. The Mountaineers like to run Garvin on reverses, as he has eight rushes already this season and ran twice versus the Hokies last year.

Much like the fullback, the WVU tight ends thus far have simply been blockers. SR Tory Johnson is a specimen with his 250 lb. frame and 4.64 forty, but he doesn’t have a catch all season. In fact, none of the tight ends do. Johnson has the speed and ability to be a threat. This may be the game that he gets his hands on the football.

The West Virginia offensive line has been in disarray. Senior OT Tim Brown was thought to be the lynchpin, but he was lost to an Achilles injury early in the year and that has caused constant shuffling. The Mountaineers have started nine different players along the line. The best player left is returning junior starter Jeff Berk, who likely will line up at right guard after starting the year at left tackle. An emerging player along the line for WVU is R-FR Dan Mozes who is the left guard. Mozes may eventually be an all league caliber player in the Big East. The likely third interior starter is R-FR Jeremy Hines, although assuming SR Ben Timmons is healthy he will get some snaps too.

6’5", 305 lb. junior college product Mike Watson is the new left tackle, and he performed pretty well against Rutgers last week in his first start. The bookend tackle will likely be 6’5", 300 lb. sophomore Josh Stewart. So, the anticipated starting offensive line this week for WVU will include 2 juniors (one a junior college transfer with little experience), 1 sophomore and 2 freshmen.

Not surprisingly given the youth and turnover, the WVU offensive line has been inconsistent this season. They have done a decent job run blocking, but their pass blocking has been below average, as Marshall has been sacked 9 times. That is high, given the fact WVU does not drop back to throw often and Marshall has great feet.

One very interesting statistic about WVU: although they are outscoring their opponents by 3 points per game (23.2 to 20.2 on the year), opponents have registered 43 more first downs than the ‘Neers through six games. What that suggests is that WVU is a big play offense, while their opponents have had to grind out longer drives against them.

WVU uses a 3-3 stack defense which basically permits eight guys to be in the box on any given play. WVU uses two corners and a free safety, and has two outside positions called the spur and the bandit that are part linebacker, part safety. WVU lacks some size and most of their depth is young, but they have played pretty well thus far this year.

The Mountaineers are holding their opponents to 20 points per game, with teams averaging 158.7 rushing yards per game (4.0 per carry) and 225.8 passing yards. Last year WVU was fourth nationally in turnover margin, and they have done a good job in that category again this year with a +7 mark.

The leader of the WVU defense is stud senior linebacker Grant Wiley. Wiley is one of the most versatile linebackers in the country, and in some ways he is reminiscent of former Hokie Ben Taylor. At 6’1", 230 lbs., Wiley is not huge but he can do everything on a football field: he has 82 tackles on the year, first on the team, 6 tackles for losses, an interception, 3 quarterback hurries and an astounding 6 forced fumbles. He will receive some national accolades at the end of this year.

The third leading tackler for WVU is junior middle linebacker Adam Lehnortt. At 6’3", 230 lbs, Lehnortt has solid size, and he has made some negative plays with five tackles for losses and 2 sacks. The third linebacker is SR Leandre Washington, who has contributed 39 tackles. Backups Alex Lake, Scott Gyorko and Kevin McLee all have seen time.

The key in any three man front is to have a strong noseguard who can occupy blockers inside, and 6’3", 270 Virginia native Ernest Hunter can do that. Hunter, a sophomore, only has 16 tackles but has 3.5 tackles for a loss and two sacks. His value goes beyond the stat sheet, however. The Mountaineers rotate a lot of guys outside, with JR Ben Lynch (29 tackles, 6 tackles for a loss), SR Fred Blueford (16 tackles) and JR Jason Hardee (14 tackles, 2 sacks, a team leading 7 quarterback hurries) leading the way.

The WVU secondary has some experience with two returning senior starters in Brian King and Lance Frazier, and some rising stars in sophomores Mike Lorello and Adam "Pac Man" Jones.

King was the star of last year’s victory over VT, and he has the experience to swing between corner and safety as necessary. He understands the system well. King is fourth on the team with 57 tackles, and he is tied for the team lead with 6 passes defensed.

The corners, Frazier and Jones, are both capable. Jones has played very well at times this year, particularly against the Canes, but his aggressiveness might be able to be used against him on double moves. Jones has 42 tackles on the year and five passes broken up. He has the look of a big-time player down the line. Frazier has 26 tackles, 2 interceptions (earning him the team lead) and has six passes defensed. Frazier and Jones are both in the 5’10"/5’11" range, so they have average height for corners.

The defensive surprise this year for WVU is the play of 6’0", 185 lb. SO Matt Lorello at spur. Lorello is second on the team with 63 tackles, including 10 for a loss (far and away the team lead), and he has an interception and 5 passes defensed as well. Lorello has really emerged as a playmaker. SO free safety Anthony Mims has 30 tackles as well.

WVU’s special teams are average statistically. They are solid on kickoffs, as they average 24.1 per return while holding opponents to 19.1 per return. Pac Man and Kay-Jay Harris have done the bulk of the kickoff returns, averaging 26.0 and 24.2, respectively, per return.

WVU’s punter is senior Todd James. James averages 41.6 yards per kick and has placed eight inside the 20 yard line. The net punting average for the Mountaineers is 35.6. Also something to watch – Rasheed Marshall has twice quick kicked this year. Expect Rodriguez to have some wrinkles for VT’s punt block unit, including rolling James to the right like UCF did with its punter and perhaps having Marshall quick kick in a third and long situation.

Jones is also the primary WVU punt returner, and he has only averaged 3.6 per return thus far. Opponents have a whopping 39.7 net average against WVU, so if VT’s coverage guys can keep Jones under control they could win the battle of field position.

WVU’s kicker, junior Brad Cooper, is only 5-of-9 on the season but that is somewhat deceiving: Cooper is a solid 5-of-6 inside 40 yards, and 0-of-3 from beyond.

I am predicting the score to be closer than many expect, because I think there are a lot of hidden factors that favor WVU. First, of course, there is the emotional aspect of this game. Rest assured WVU will be ready to play. Second, Morgantown is an extremely difficult place to play: VT historically is only 8-15 there, and Beamer’s record is only 5-4. In fact, other than the 35-0 blowout of WVU two years ago (and this WVU team is better than that one), VT has never scored more than 28 points at Morgantown. Third, rain is in the forecast and I think that will hurt VT more than WVU because it could slow the Hokie passing game. Also remember that there is new turf at Mountaineer Field that VT has never played on, and it might take a while for the players to adjust. Finally, VT has suffered some injuries in the last few days. While none is debilitating given the depth of the Hokies, if LT Jimmy Martin can’t play that will cause some shifting along the offensive line. Hopefully, Carter Warley will be fine to kick Wednesday night.

With all that being said, I still think the Hokies will prevail by more than a touchdown. VT should win the special teams battle, and I feel better about the Hokie defense controlling Wilson after seeing how they performed against Reyes. The defensive tackles and inside linebackers will have to make plays in this game against a young WVU offensive line, and I think they will.

Will Stewart's Take: I like horror movies, and yesterday, I watched a doozy: the 2002 VT/WVU game.

What I saw was a Hokie team that committed dumb penalties, repeatedly gave up first downs on third and long, surrendered rushing yards in huge gobs, and wasn't nearly the team that they are this season.

This year, the Hokies are healthier, Bryan Randall is a much better QB, the Tech offensive scheme and playcalling are light years improved, and the defense isn't the young, porous, banged-up bunch they were year ago.

You can talk all you want to about Morgantown and how the Hokies perform there, but blowout wins by VT are not unheard of. In 1995, the Hokies blanked WVU 27-0, and in 2001, as Jeff mentioned, they shut them down 35-0. In between, Tech was hammered 30-17 in 1997 and won the famous 22-20 nail-biter in 1999.

The key for Tech is limiting turnovers, because if the WVU offense is forced to embark on long drives without the benefit of a short field, I don't think they'll be successful. WVU ranks last or next to last in the Big East in the following offensive statistical categories: scoring offense, pass offense, total offense, pass efficiency, first downs, third-down conversions, fourth-down conversions, and time of possession. If you limit your turnovers and don't give up the big plays, you can whitewash this team.

Offensively, WVU is very similar to Syracuse: shut down the run, and they're done, because the Mountaineers do run the ball pretty well. But if you put the game on Rasheed Marshall's shoulders, odds are he won't carry WVU to victory.

Defensively, WVU is a tougher nut to crack. A great linebacker like Grant Wiley goes a long way (remember his dive over the line on fourth and goal that stopped "TD Lee" Suggs in his tracks last season?). But the Hokies are not the unimaginative, easy-to-predict bunch that they were last year offensively, and Tech's newfound use of misdirection in their offense will help to slow Wiley down a little bit, instead of allowing him to fire straight to the point of attack.

WVU lost a ton of guys off their defense from last year. Only three of the players who will start on defense for WVU Wednesday were starters last year, and a 270-pound noseguard going up against Tech center Jake Grove isn't a good thing for the Mountaineer defense.

Last year, I predicted the Hokies to lose to WVU. This year, I'm predicting the opposite. I say that in this game, the Hokies will make a statement. VT is going to "show 'em what I know."

Will Stewart's Prediction: Hokies 35, Mountaineers 10

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