To answer that question, you would have to research the Big East media predictions and final Big East standings for 1993-2000, the eight completed years of round-robin play in the Big East. You would have to bounce the predictions off of the final standings, and maybe you could run some calculations to find out which teams were consistently underrated or overrated.

Well, this is "Inside the Numbers," and that's the whole point of this recurring TSL Extra feature: grab the numbers and crunch 'em.

Finding the numbers to write this article was no easy feat. The Big East final standings for 1993-2000 were easy to find, of course. I've got a Big East media guide from last year, and that takes care of that.

As for the preseason predictions, they were a little tougher to track down. I found some of them in old Hokie Huddlers, I got last year's from the Big East web site (www.bigeast.org), I grabbed a couple of years worth of rankings from the TechSideline.com archives, and a message board poster provided me with the preseason rankings for 1993 from a Hokie Huddler.

When all my research was done, I was still missing 1997 and 1999. I emailed Bill Roth, who graciously climbed up into the attic of his house and poked around, to no avail. As a last resort, I emailed John Paquette, an assistant commissioner of the Big East conference, who counts media relations among his duties. Not only did Mr. Paquette email me back within two hours, but he gladly provided the preseason predictions for 1997 and 1999.

So we're ready to rock and roll. Let's take a look.

As with most "Inside the Numbers" features, half the battle is presenting the data. I'll give you some interesting ways of looking at summaries of the data, and if you're interested in poking through the data yourself, I'll give you a link to a web page and a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet that contain the data.

First, a definition of terms: "preseason prediction" or "preseason ranking" refers to where a Big East team was predicted to finish in the league. The source for preseason predictions are the Big East media polls that are conducted every summer at the conference's Big East Media day, usually in late July or early August. The "finish" or "final standings" refer to where a team finishes in the Big East standings after the season is played.

Here's a breakdown of how the eight Big East teams fared in the preseason rankings from 1993-2000.

Worth noting:

• Out of the Big 4 -- Miami, VT, Syracuse, and WVU -- only Tech has never been picked to finish first in the league.

• Miami is the only team that has never been picked to finish in the bottom half of the league.

• With regards to preseason rankings, there is a huge chasm between the top 5 and Pitt, Rutgers, and Temple. While the top 5 have all been picked to finish as high as #2 at one time or another, neither Pitt, Rutgers or Temple has ever been picked to finish in the top 4. That changed in 2001 with Pittsburgh being picked to finish #3, but the 2001 data is not included in this report (because the 2001 final standings are not there to balance out the preseason rankings).

Here's how the eight Big East teams fared in the final Big East standings from 1993-2000.

Worth Noting:

• Virginia Tech is the only team that has never finished in the bottom half of the league. Rutgers and Temple are the only teams that have never finished in the top half of the league.

• The perceived dividing line between the top four teams in the league -- Miami, VT, Syracuse, and WVU -- and the bottom four teams -- BC, Pitt, Rutgers, and Temple -- is real. Teams from the top four have finished in the bottom half of the league just 4 out of 32 times (12.5%), and teams from the bottom four have finished in the top half of the league just 4 times. Pitt's apparent ascension and WVU's and Syracuse's apparent declines are altering that balance, but only time will tell.

• Syracuse's three straight first-place finishes (1996-1998) are the only time in league history that has been accomplished.

The real item of interest in this article is comparing the preseason rankings to the postseason standings. Here you are:

Worth Noting:

• Most Underrated: Virginia Tech, which finishes on average 1.13 spots above their preseason ranking. The Hokies have never finished lower than their preseason prediction; all other Big East teams have.

• Most Overrated: Tie, Miami and BC, which finish on average 0.63 spots below their preseason ranking. This is not a surprise in Miami's case, because they're picked first almost every year, and given that, they're a lot more likely to finish lower than their preseason ranking than they are to finish higher. As for BC, a majority of their "underrating" occurred from 1994-97, as the media took time to realize that the program was falling from the high perch of the Tom Coughlin years.

• Biggest Surprise: In 1993, WVU finished 1st, 3 spots ahead of their preseason ranking of 4th.

• Biggest Disappointment: In 1997, Miami finished 5th, 4 spots behind their preseason ranking of 1st.

• A Clear Crystal Ball: The Big East media's most accurate year was 1994, when 6 of the 8 teams finished exactly where they were picked to finish. Syracuse and BC were the exceptions (BC finished 5th instead of 3rd, Syracuse 3rd instead of 5th).

• Not So Clear: From 1997 through 1999, only one Big East team finished where the media predicted it would. Temple finished last in 1998, which the media correctly predicted.

• Sheesh: Eight years of ranking eight teams has produced 64 preseason rankings of individual teams. Out of those 64 rankings, the Big East media has been right just 18 times (28%).

The data links included below present the data in a different format than what you see here, so it's worth a look. You'll see year-by-year predictions, finishes, and the difference between the two for each team for each year.

You can download the data and view it, either as a web page, or as a Microsoft Excel 97 spreadsheet.

http://www.techsideline.com/tslextra/issue010/bepredictions.htm

To download the data yourself in Microsoft Excel 97 spreadsheet format, head to this link:

http://www.techsideline.com/tslextra/issue010/bepredictions.xls

(Right-click the link and do a "Save Link As" or "Save Target As" to save the Excel file to disk.)

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