Men's Basketball Preview
by Curt Spear
TSL Extra, Issue #13

With November 17th having arrived just a few days ago, Virginia Tech’s men’s hoops team is gearing up for its second season in the Big East. As most analysts expected, the Hokies took their lumps in last year’s Big East debut season, finishing with a 2-14 conference record. Head coach Ricky Stokes had to throw a lot of youngsters into the fire earlier than he probably would have liked, and the results were predictable.

Last year's players are a year older and wiser now, and with the addition of a couple of freshmen and two key junior college transfers, this year’s team has more talent, experience and depth than last year’s. It is both fair and realistic to expect the Hokies to be better, but the questions are how much better, how quickly, and how much the improvement will show up in the record and conference standings. Before answering those questions, let’s take a closer look at the team.

PROJECTED STARTERS

PG (point guard): Eric Branham
WG (wing guard): Carlos Dixon
WF (wing forward): Bryant Matthews
PF (power forward): Terry Taylor
C (center): Carlton Carter

Top Reserves: WG/PG Brian Chase, PF John Smith, WG/WF Joe Hamilton, PF/C Mbindo Dongo

AT THE POINT (PG)

By last season’s end, it was evident to Stokes that Tech needed some help at the point. Highly-touted frosh Chris Exilus, who has since transferred, struggled early and lost confidence as the season went on. By mid-February, he was a shell of the player who had scored 20 points against VMI in his first college game.

Carlos Dixon (6’7") and Brian Chase (5’10") gave admirable efforts taking turns as the full-time point guard, but neither was particularly effective at creating for their teammates, both turned the ball over too frequently against defensive pressure, and both were more productive working off-the-ball as scorers. For all the talk about Virginia Tech’s lack of muscle and depth up front, Stokes’ #1 need was for a mature, steady hand to run the point.

Enter Eric Branham. Branham, a 5’11" guard who played at Hagerstown Community College last season, has drawn praise from the Tech staff for the stability he has brought to the position in practice and in the first exhibition game, an 83-57 Virginia Tech win over a Nike Elite touring squad. In that game, Branham scored 14 points, drained two of three from 3-point range, and did not commit a single turnover.

Virginia Tech desperately needs to improve upon last season’s offensive chemistry – or lack thereof – and turnover statistics. More than any other individual on the roster, Branham’s development will be the key in those departments. The early returns have been favorable, but a broken hand is keeping Branham out of action at the beginning of the season. Fortunately, he is not expected to miss too much time, and should be back by late November or early December.

Most likely, Dixon and Chase will fill in as part-time point guards if and when Branham is fatigued, in foul trouble or injured. Both posted assist-to-turnover ratios of less than one a season ago, so if either is forced into longer-term duty at the point for whatever reason, that could be a problem again.

ON THE WING (WG, WF)

If Ricky Stokes is to fulfill his pledge to bring up-tempo, press-and-run basketball to Tech, he’s going to need a stable of wing players who can run the floor and handle the ball. Last year, a set of promising newcomers arrived with the potential to develop those kinds of skills. While Dixon, Bryant Matthews (6’7") and mid-season addition Joe Hamilton (6’6") showed flashes of brilliance, their youth and lack of experience was evident. Dixon and Matthews in particular have a lot of promise, but necessity pressed them into service far sooner than Stokes probably would have preferred. Hamilton also had moments of greatness and produced fairly well in the minutes he was given, but as a mid-year enrollee, he hadn’t been able to practice with his teammates before mid-December, so it was only natural to expect everyone’s chemistry to be off.

Stokes’ hope is that now that those three guys have been through a year’s worth of Big East wars, they can team with Chase to bring some athleticism and scoring punch to the wing guard and forward positions. While they are only sophomores, Dixon and Matthews provide a combination of size, athleticism and explosiveness that nobody else on this team can. Both run the floor and finish the break well, and both should flourish in a press-and-run system.

Dixon, a dangerous deep shooter, was the Hokies second-leading scorer as a freshman last season with 11.0 ppg. Matthews, who is more adept at slashing to the hoop, posted a very respectable 9.1 ppg despite often playing out of position at power forward. Those two have excellent upsides, but must improve their efficiency. Dixon’s FG% was in the mid-30’s for most of the season, and Matthews’ percentage, while better than Dixon’s, still needs to improve.

Both have a year of starting in the Big East under their belts, both have added some much-needed strength in the off-season, and with natural progression, both should be better and more efficient players than they were a season ago. Look for Dixon to start at the wing guard spot alongside Matthews at wing forward.

What about Brian Chase? Chase was the Hokies’ leading scorer a season ago (12.9 ppg), was the most accurate 3-point shooter in the Big East (46.8%), and is the most experienced player on VT’s roster. Despite all that, he may very well find himself coming off the bench instead of in the starting lineup. For all of Chase’s talents, he has struggled with turnovers when forced to be Tech’s primary ballhandler and distributor. Stokes will likely go with what he hopes is a steadier hand at the point in Branham.

Given that, if Stokes were to start Chase at the wing guard, he would have two guards under 6’ on the court at once – which could cause significant offensive and defensive match-up problems. Chase will get his minutes, but they are likely to come in relief of Branham or Dixon, with Tech playing a lot of zone when Chase and Branham are playing simultaneously. The best guess is that Chase will be Tech’s first reserve off the bench, and if Tech suffers any early scoring droughts, Chase will be the "instant offense" guy to enter the game and give the Hokies a different look.

Hamilton might be the most versatile player on Tech’s roster. A fantastic athlete, he can play either guard or forward as a slasher/scorer type. He was one of Tech’s most productive players in terms of points-per-minute last year, but like Dixon and Matthews, needs to be more judicious with his shot selection. Hamilton is Tech’s only senior on the perimeter, and must demonstrate poise and judgment. If his shot selection and decision-making improve, he can give Stokes some "oomph" off the bench.

6’7" freshman C.J. Pigford may earn a few minutes. He will scrap with the best of them, but his minutes will probably be limited behind the more experienced players in front of him. He may be a bit of a ‘tweener, playing some minutes on the wing and some minutes at the power forward spot.

IN THE POST (PF, C)

The post is the hardest area of the Virginia Tech team to project. The power forward and center positions appear to be wide open for anybody that wants to claim them. Whoever produces will start, and if anybody struggles for any extended period of time, they’d better be looking over their shoulder. Stokes should have at least one or two more options in the post this year that were not around a year ago.

JUCO transfer Terry Taylor might be the best bet to lock up one of the starting post positions. At 6’7" and 275 pounds, Taylor is probably the strongest member of Tech’s frontcourt, and has surprising agility for his build. While he won’t overpower as many opponents at this level as he did in junior college, Taylor has good enough scoring tools to contribute, and he should put up better offensive and rebounding numbers than Tech saw from any of last year’s frontcourt starters.

After that, it’s anybody’s guess. 6’11" Carlton Carter would give Tech more height in the middle than any other player, but even after putting on 16 pounds in the off-season, he is still at a relatively slight 212 pounds and might still get pushed around a bit by Big East heavyweights. If Carter wants to start, he’d better improve upon last season’s FG%, which was mired in the low 40’s. A 6’11" F/C needs to shoot a higher percentage than that.

6’9" Mbindo Dongo brings a great deal of enthusiasm to the court and could win the center spot. Dongo’s skills aren’t particularly refined, but at 6’9" and 240 pounds, he’s one of Tech’s strongest post players, and he will score a few points and grab several rebounds per game as a result of sheer hustle and hard work.

6’8" Jon Smith was given a starting spot in the exhibition against Nike Elite, but Taylor’s arrival may cut into his playing time over the long haul. A good athlete and excellent physical specimen, Smith hasn’t yet developed the consistency that his fans and coaches would like to see.

Harding NaNa, a 6’8" freshman from Notre Dame Academy in Middleburg, Virginia, has been given the "project" label by many experts, but there’s no denying his work ethic and aggressiveness. Seton Hall was interested in NaNa before last spring’s signing period, but couldn’t reel him in after Tommy Amaker left for Michigan. While it may be another season or two before NaNa begins to make a name for himself at this level, his is a name worth remembering down the line.

The wild card among VT’s plans for the post could be 6’9" Dimari Thompkins. Thompkins, regarded as a top-125 prospect a few years ago, has been out of basketball after failing to qualify academically at Hargrave in 1999. He will reportedly become eligible after completing a community college course this fall, and should join the Hokies in December. With Thompkins’ size, strength and mean streak, he could be an immediate contributor.

THE BOTTOM LINE

With the continued development of last year’s youngsters and the arrival of the junior college newcomers, there’s little doubt that Virginia Tech will be better in 2001-02. But how much will it show up in the won-loss record, and how much will it show up in the conference standings?

The out-of-conference schedule holds only three games against teams who finished in the top 160 of the 319 Division I teams in last season’s RPI ratings. The December 1 showdown at Virginia will be the marquee game. The Jim Thorpe Association Classic will pit Tech against traditional Ohio Valley Conference power Murray State, then either Louisville or Wisconsin-Milwaukee in the second round. All three of those teams were in the RPI top 125 last year.

Outside of those games, Virginia Tech’s toughest challenges will be a visit to Florida State, who will feature a couple of highly-touted newcomers, and a grudge match against Radford, in which Tech will be seeking to avenge the loss to the Highlanders in 1999-2000. Virginia Tech is likely to be favored in at least eight of its out-of-conference games. In Big East play, things will get tougher. Four of the first five league games are at Cassell Coliseum, which means getting off to a good start will be critical.

Conference play will be difficult. In the East Division (Tech's division), Connecticut and Boston College should battle for the title as Caron Butler and Troy Bell battle for conference Player of the Year honors. Diminutive John Linehan and Providence’s tough defense should carry the Friars into the upper division as well. Miami welcomes back F/C Elton Tyler from his academic difficulties, and figures to get a lot of production from sophomore Darius Rice. St. John’s and Villanova could find themselves battling for fifth and sixth place.

On the West side, Georgetown and Syracuse figure to be a step ahead of the pack, followed by Notre Dame. West Virginia hopes that a promising freshman class can help them step forward, while Seton Hall may take a step back without Tommy Amaker and Eddie Griffin. Pittsburgh’s talent base ain’t what it used to be, and Rutgers will struggle after Todd Billet’s transfer.

Where does that leave the Hokies? Tech should win something on the order of eight non-conference games, maybe nine with a break or two. Stability from the point guard spot and improved depth in the frontcourt could help the Hokies step up from two conference wins to four or five. If Branham and Taylor are as good as advertised, 12 wins overall and four or five in conference is certainly possible. That may or may not be enough to get out of the basement in the East Division, but even if Tech doesn’t pull off a jump to sixth place, the Hokies figure to be much closer than they were a year ago.

There is still much work to be done, but at long last, the train appears to be headed in the right direction.

Note: Curt Spear posts as "Cavalier91" on the TechSideline.com message boards and is the basketball editor for The Wagon Online (virginia.rivals.com).

 

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