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TSLMail #264 - Friday, February 2, 2007 |
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You Checked Kroger®'s Store Locator and Weekly Specials Web Page?
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Kroger®'s latest TSL ads,
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Hokie Women Have a Shot at the NCAA Tourney
by Will Stewart, TechSideline.com
On November 28th, the
Virginia Tech women's basketball team was humiliated at home by William &
Mary, losing 64-41. The Tribe slapped a 25-5 run on the Hokies in the first
half, led 34-17 at the break, and never looked back. With the loss, the Hokies
fell to 4-4 on the year. They had already dropped their season opener to Radford
67-60, were drubbed at one point by LSU 70-40, and appeared to be headed for a
terrible season.
The Hokies were coming off
a 21-10 record and their 7th NCAA tournament invitation in the last nine years,
but they had graduated four seniors off that team: Dawn Chriss, Megan Finnerty,
and longtime starters and standouts Carrie Mason and Kerri Gardin. The team was
expected to take a big dip, but losing at home to both Radford and William &
Mary painted a gloomy picture of what was to come.
Since
that loss to W&M though, the Hokies have quietly gone 10-5 and have improved
their record to 14-9 overall, and a respectable 4-4 in the ACC (good for seventh
place in the ACC
standings).
There's a
tale-within-a-tale in that 10-5 stretch. Four of the five losses have come to
outstanding teams, including home and road losses to #1 Duke, a road loss to #2
UNC, and a road loss to Florida State, a 17-5 team that is 6-1 in the league and
all alone in third place. The only bad loss since the W&M loss was a road
defeat at UAB on December 21st. The Blazers are 13-9 overall, 7-2 in Conference
USA (first place), and #133 in the RPI.
The question becomes,
after such a terrible start, can Virginia Tech's women still make the NCAA
tournament? They can, but they've got some work to do. First, their RPI isn't
nearly good enough yet. It has improved greatly, but still stands at #68,
nowhere near at-large territory.
Looking at the RPI, the
Hokies have several bad losses, at home to #168 Radford and #118 William &
Mary, and on the road to #133 UAB. Their other losses have come to teams in the
top 51 of the RPI.
The problem is, the Hokies
have no quality RPI wins. They only have four wins against top-100 RPI teams:
West Virginia (#60), Charlotte (#77), at UNC-G (#82), and at Virginia (#72).
None of those wins are over top-50 RPI teams, which is something you need when
your own RPI is only 68.
The remainder of the
season looks like a good opportunity to improve the record, but not to snare
many quality wins. VT has seven games left:
Date |
Opponent |
Opp.
Record |
Opp.
RPI |
2/3 |
Morehead St. |
12-10 (11-3) |
167 |
2/5 |
Georgia Tech |
14-8 (5-3) |
49 |
2/8 |
At Maryland |
21-3 (5-3) |
3 |
2/11 |
At Clemson |
10-12 (2-5) |
120 |
2/15 |
Virginia |
12-9 (2-5) |
72 |
2/18 |
N.C. State |
16-7 (5-3) |
41 |
2/23 |
At Boston College |
10-11 (1-7) |
126 |
Looking at things optimistically, the Hokies can go 6-1 over that seven-game
stretch (assume a loss at Maryland and wins everywhere else), leaving them at
20-10 overall, 9-5 in the ACC. That ACC record would put the Hokies squarely in
the upper half of the league, as high as fifth place, behind UNC, Duke,
Maryland, and FSU.
Would that 6-1
season-ending streak be good enough? The ACC had seven NCAA bids last year,
including a bid to VT, who finished #7 in the league at 6-8, 20-9 overall. That
Hokie team had four wins over top-50 RPI teams (at season's end), but more
importantly, it had an outstanding RPI of 23 and a strength of schedule rating
of 18.
Here's a comparison
between last year's team and this year's team, assuming the Hokies finish 6-1
down the stretch (a big assumption), and assuming RPIs stay roughly the same for
future opponents:
Season |
Record* |
RPI |
Top
50
Wins |
Bad
Losses
(100+ RPI) |
2005-06 |
20-9 (7-9) |
23 |
4 |
1 |
2006-07 |
20-10 (9-5) |
?? |
2 |
3 |
* The 2005-06
record includes ACC tournament games;
the 2006-07 record is a projection and does not include
ACC tourney games. |
For Tech's women to receive an at-large bid, the following is probably
necessary:
- Their RPI would have to
improve drastically, reaching at least the low 40s from its current 68. That
type of movement is hard to accomplish this time of year.
- A victory at Maryland
(assumed a loss in this analysis) would benefit VT greatly and give a big
boost to their RPI.
- Going 8-2 over the last
ten games (as projected here), or even 9-1 with a win over Maryland, would
look very good in the selection committee's eyes.
- Winning at least one
game in the ACC Tournament, as they did last year, or even two, would be a
big boost.
With
their early losses, particularly to Radford and William & Mary at home, the
Tech women dug themselves a huge hole that is hard to climb out of. If they
don't make the NCAA tourney, they have a very good shot at making the WNIT, and
if they are able to achieve another 20-win season, it would be their ninth
20-win campaign in the last ten years.
If you look at the
statistics, it's hard to figure out how Tech's women have done as well as they
have. The Hokies rank 6th to 9th in every team statistical category in the ACC,
except for 3-point shooting percentage and 3-point percentage defense, where
they come up dead last.
In individual statistics,
only seniors Kirby Copeland and Nare Diawara show up in the ACC stats:
- Copeland: 10th in the
league in scoring at 14.5 ppg; 4th in assists at 5.05; 10th in steals at
2.2.
- Diawara: 19th in
scoring at 12.6 ppg; 6th in rebounding at 8.6 rpg; 8th in blocks at 1.6.
Amber Hall is 11th in
blocks at 1.1 per game, but other than that, Copeland and Diawara are the only
Hokies listed.
Head coach Beth
Dunkenberger and her players have done a good job turning around a season that
got off to a bad start. Now in her third year at Tech, Dunkenberger has during
her time taken a team of players that were recruited by Bonnie Henrickson to
play a half-court style of basketball in the Big East, and turned them into a
competitive ACC team. With seven regular-season games left, they've got a chance
for the NCAA tournament, albeit a slim one.
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TechSideline.com
Updates From the Past Week
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Countdown to Signing Day: Final '07 Edition
February 2, 2007
There
is less than a week until the most exciting day in college football
recruiting, Signing Day. This is the final edition of Countdown to Signing
Day for the 2007 class, a class that pretty much came together for
Virginia Tech in two months time last summer.
more
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Class
of '08 Preview: Deep Run's Talented Duo
February 1, 2007
Deep
Run High School's (Glen Allen, VA) varsity football squad enjoyed a dream
season in 2006, attaining feats including a Colonial district title, an
undefeated regular season and a (Division 5) Central Region championship.
Two of its most talented juniors will return next season in hopes of
duplicating, and perhaps adding to, the success.
more
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Around
the ACC: February 1st, 2007
February 1, 2007
The
North Carolina Tar Heels, the highest-ranked and best team in the
conference, ascended this past week to the number one spot in the ACC
standings, thanks to losses by Boston College and Virginia Tech. The
league has separated itself into two groups in the standings, heading into
tonight's Duke vs. Virginia game: five teams have one or two losses in the
league, while the other seven teams have four losses or more. All that and
more in this week's installment of "Around the ACC."
more
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The
Latest on Will Alvarez
February 1, 2007
6-5,
310-pound Will Alvarez made an official visit to Virginia Tech last
weekend. The Hylton (Woodbridge, VA) star, an AP and VHSCA first-team
all-state performer his senior year, also was to receive some important
news this week. TechSideline.com checked back in with Hylton head coach
Lou Sorrentino for the latest.
more
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Flat
Hokies Fall to NC State 70-59
February 1, 2007
#16
Virginia Tech, undefeated at home and fresh off two road wins, came out
flat against NC State and dropped their first home contest of the season
70-59 on Wednesday night. The Hokies drop to 16-6 overall and 6-2 in the
ACC, relinquishing their hold on the top spot in the conference standings.
NC State improves to 12-8 and 2-5 in conference play.
more
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Okoli
Decision by Friday
January 31, 2007
Salem
(Virginia Beach, VA) defensive lineman Chima Okoli will have a
decision by Friday. The 6-5, 270-pound prospect is down to Penn State and
Virginia Tech and is looking forward to choosing one of those programs in
the coming days.
more
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TSL
Recruiting Report from "SportsBeat With Mike Harris", for
1/29/07
January 31, 2007
On
Monday night's show, TSL recruiting analyst Chris Horne talked with Mike
Harris about VT recruiting target Chima Okoli, VT commitment Collin
Carroll, UVa commitment Jared Green, and various other recruiting topics
(MP3 format, compatible with Windows Media Player and MP3 players, 2.4 MB,
20:31).
more
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Delaney
Leading Towson to Successful Season
January 31, 2007
Last
night, 6-3, 170-pound shooting guard Malcolm Delaney did what he
has consistently done throughout the 2006/2007 season, and that is to help
Towson Catholic (MD) to a victory. The Virginia Tech signee poured in 21
points in the 91-61 win over Calvert Hall, Towson Catholic's 20th win of
the season.
more
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Basketball
Game Preview: #16 Virginia Tech vs. N.C. State
January 31, 2007
The
#16 Hokies look to continue their winning ways when the NC State Wolfpack
visit Cassell Coliseum on Wednesday night. With a win over NC State,
Virginia Tech will keep their spot atop the ACC standings, and it would
also give them a win over every single ACC school from the state of North
Carolina this season. Those are serious bragging rights, and it's not
something any of us imagined just a few short years ago.
more
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Class
of '08 Preview: Spotsylvania
January 30, 2007
Continuing
on with our preview of the 2008 recruiting class, we take a look at some
of the potential prospects coming out of Spotsylvania High School (VA).
Head coach Myron Matthias boasts several prospects he feels could garner
college attention. Included among the list is a 6-5, 280-pound offensive
lineman.
more
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Hokie
Hotline Notes for 1/29/07
January 30, 2007
Seth
Greenberg was the Hokie Hotline guest Monday night, and he talked about
the Georgia Tech win and the upcoming NC State game. Greenberg also
discussed the productivity of his bench and the importance of taking games
one a time as the Hokies work towards the NCAA tournament.
more
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Virginia
Tech Lands Commitment #24
January 29, 2007
Last
fall, Virginia Tech first began showing interest in a center/long snapper
prospect out of Edina High School in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The Hokies
continued to show interest until last Monday, when the staff extended an
offer to the prospect. Today, Tech has received its 24th commitment of the
2007 recruiting class.
more
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Unlikely
First-Place Hokies Putting Together Special Season
January 29, 2007
Two
dates seem like a long time ago now: December 3rd, the day the Hokie
basketball team lost to GW 63-62 and fell to 4-3; and December 30th, the
day they dropped an uninspired, inexplicable 59-58 decision to Marshall.
Those days are fading quickly into the rear view mirror, as Virginia Tech
takes a Monday without basketball to admire itself in an unusual position:
first place in the ACC.
more
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Hokies
Move Up in the Polls
January 29, 2007
Virginia
Tech came up with two more victories this past week, both on the road in
difficult situations. Those wins enabled them to move up in the latest set
of rankings released on Monday. The Hokies are #18 in the ESPN/USA Today
Coaches' Poll and #16 in the A.P. Poll.
Also: Dowdell Honored by ACC, Vitale.
more
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Key
Week for Alvarez
January 29, 2007
One
of two Virginia Tech commitments in Blacksburg on official visits this
past weekend, 6-5, 310-pound Hylton (Woodbridge, VA) offensive line
prospect Will Alvarez is one of Virginia Tech's biggest recruits -
literally and figuratively. More importantly than the official visit,
however, is what news will come this week.
more
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Decision
Coming Soon for Okoli?
January 29, 2007
Chima
Okoli has two favorite schools right now and could have a decision
soon. One of the fastest rising prospects in recent months, the 6-5,
270-pound Salem (Virginia Beach, VA) standout made what could be his final
official visit this past weekend - and it was to one of his two favorites.
more
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Roberts
Enjoys Visit to VT
January 29, 2007
Three-star
offensive lineman Desmond Roberts certainly was impressed with his
official visit to Virginia Tech this past weekend. The Hokies are in this
race, but will the official visit experience be enough to sway the
talented Northampton (Gaston, N.C.) recruit from his original commitment
to N.C. State?
more
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Hokies
Swat Yellow Jackets 73-65
January 28, 2007
#23
Virginia Tech improved their ACC road record to 3-1 following a 73-65
victory over Georgia Tech in Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. The Hokies are
16-5 overall and 6-1 in the ACC. With Boston College's loss at Duke on
Sunday, Virginia Tech is all alone in first place in the ACC. Georgia Tech
drops to 13-7 overall and 2-5 in ACC play. It was the Yellow Jackets'
first home loss of the season.
more
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Basketball
Game Preview: #23 Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech
January 26, 2007
A
road game against a talented team that is desperate for a win. That will
be the situation for the #23 Hokies when they travel to Atlanta to take on
the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Sunday afternoon. Virginia Tech is 2-1
against Georgia Tech since joining the ACC, including a 70-69 win in
Alexander Memorial Coliseum two years ago. But can they repeat that feat
this weekend?
more
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Class
of '08: First Colonial's Gregory One to Watch
January 26, 2007
In
talking to several high school coaches from Virginia Beach regarding some
of the top juniors in the area, one name that kept coming up was First
Colonial running back Tony Gregory. In talking to First Colonial
head coach Jae Clark, expect Gregory, who turned in a solid junior season,
to get a whole lot more touches in 2007.
more
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