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Welcome to TSLMail #269 - Friday, March 9, 2007 |
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From scanning the basketball message board since Tech's 75-74 loss to Clemson, it appears there are some fans out there who think the Hokies could still be left out of the NCAA tournament if they don't win their first ACC tournament game tonight against Wake Forest. If you're a member of that group, spend the next few minutes reading this week's TSLMail to put your mind at ease. Virginia Tech is 20-10 overall and 10-6 in the ACC. They finished #3 in the most prestigious conference in America. They will be in the NCAA tournament. I'd guarantee it. Still don't believe me? Keep reading. It's possible to finish below .500 in the ACC and still get an invitation to the NCAA tournament. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 26 teams have finished either 6-8 or 7-9 in the ACC. Of those 26 teams, 12 have been invited to the NCAA tournament. However, we must be completely fair and mention that 11 of the past 14 teams that finished 7-9 in the ACC were left out of the Big Dance. It appears that the Selection Committee's opinion on 7-9 ACC teams has dropped over the past few years. Fortunately, the Hokies aren't 7-9, so we don't have to worry about that. Let's move on to teams who finished exactly .500 in conference play. The ACC has had 18 teams finish 7-7 or 8-8 in the ACC since 1985. 14 of those 18 teams have advanced to the NCAA tournament. One of those teams was the 2004-05 Virginia Tech Hokies. Although Tech finished 8-8 in the ACC, they only had 15 overall wins, and no 15-win team has ever received an at-large berth to the NCAA tournament If you finish with a winning record in the ACC, it's almost impossible to get left out of the NCAA tournament. For teams that finished 8-6 or 9-7 (two games above .500) since 1985, all but two have received an invitation to the Big Dance. Only Virginia in 2000 did not get a bid. The Hoos went 9-7 in the ACC that year and got left out. Florida State also got left out last season with a 9-7 mark. Overall, 21 of 23 teams who have finished two games above .500 in ACC have gotten an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. With the Hokies at 10-6, it makes you feel like they're a lock, doesn't it? What definitely makes Virginia Tech a lock to be picked by the NCAA Selection Committee is the fact that no ACC team that has finished four games or more over .500 in conference play has been left out of the NCAA tournament. Since 1985, 63 teams have finished 9-5 or 10-6 or better, and every one of them got an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. The Hokies are in. No doubt about it. Here's a look at the past 10-6 teams from the ACC.
The 2000-01 Maryland Terrapins made the Final Four, and their regular season compares closely to Virginia Tech's 2006-07 regular season. The Terps were 20-9 overall to end the regular season, 10-6 in the ACC. That's almost identical to Tech's 20-10 overall, 10-6 ACC record. Maryland beat Wake Forest in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament that year, then lost to Duke in the semifinals. After the ACC Tournament, Maryland was 21-10 with an RPI of 22 and an SOS of 21. The Hokies' RPI is 27, with an SOS of 14. (Those numbers are from Ken Pomeroy's RPI system). With one win in the ACC tournament, then a loss in the second round, the Hokies will finish 21-11, with RPI and SOS numbers similar to those of Maryland in 2001. That year, the Terps got a #3 seed and made the Final Four. They knocked off George Mason, Georgia State, Georgetown and Stanford before falling to Duke in the National Semifinals. No one is projecting the Hokies as a #3 seed this year. Joe Lunardi currently has Tech as a #5 seed. As the 2001 Maryland Terrapins showed, the #3 team out of the ACC stands a decent chance of making some noise in the NCAA tournament. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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