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TSLMail #366- January 23, 2009 |
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Stats Don't Tell the Story for Hokie Hoops by Chris Coleman, TechSideline.com A quick look at the ACC stats (conference games only) does not indicate that Virginia Tech would be the #2 seed in the ACC Tournament, if the season ended today. Yet that's exactly where the Hokies are. They aren't lighting the ACC up statistically, but they are managing to pull out games late in the second half, as they've generally done throughout Seth Greenberg's tenure. We averaged the statistical rankings of 10 different categories for each ACC team. The categories are: scoring offense, scoring defense, field goal percentage, field goal percentage defense, three-point percentage, three-point percentage defense, free throw percentage, rebounding margin, assist-to-turnover ration and turnover margin. As you can see, the stats don't necessarily matchup with where each team currently sits in the conference standings.
Of the three teams with one or fewer conference losses (Duke, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech), the Hokies are the lowest ranked team statistically. The Hokies only average a ranking of 7.1 in the ACC in the 10 statistical categories, while Duke and Wake are among the top three teams in the league statistically. In fact, the Blue Devils rank first in the conference in four of the 10 categories. Wake ranks first or second in four of the 10. In stark contrast, Virginia Tech only ranks in the top half of the league in four categories. Tech's best mark is field goal percentage, where they rank second in the ACC behind Wake Forest. If you consider that the Hokies have been middle-of-the-pack statistically, or maybe a little lower than that, then at this point you have to consider them the most overachieving team in the ACC. By contrast, UNC is dominating the conference statistically, but they have lost two games in the final minutes to Boston College and Wake Forest. That's where the toughness that Seth Greenberg talks about every day comes into play. North Carolina is used to blowing teams out, and on the two occasions they've been involved in a close game in the final minutes, they've faltered. Meanwhile, Virginia Tech was in a number of close games in the out-of-conference portion of their schedule. Though they didn't do well in those games, the experience paid off in ACC play. In Tech's three victories over Virginia, Boston College and Wake Forest, the Hokies have led by single digits in the final minutes, and they've been able to outfight all three opponents for the victory. In the end, the only statistic that matters is the ACC standings, where Tech is currently tied for second place, and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Wake Forest. As good as the start to ACC play has been, the Hokies still have a long way to go if they want their reach their goal. Tech has seven games remaining against Top 50 opponents, and they need to grab a few more key wins.
It won't be easy, however. The stretch from February 21 through March 8 is perhaps the most difficult five-game stretch in Tech history. The Hokies have to play three Top 10 RPI teams in a row, and those three games are boxed in between games against #20 Florida State. That's going to be a tough stretch, but that's what ACC basketball is all about.
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